Are the tenants a new electoral coalition?

Margaret Thatcher had the Essex Man and New Labor boasted the Mondeo Man. David Cameron provided Mumsnet Mums and for Boris Johnson he was Workington Man. They all symbolize the voters who changed their votes in the election, effectively deciding who will lose and win.

What about 2024? When the key electoral blocs are drawn up, it is possible that Ruth Tenant will be the key if Labor is to win, as the polls currently suggest. Over the past decade, the number of renters has increased, while the Conservative Party has seen its share of support among the group decline.

In 2022-23, the private rented sector in England accounted for 4.6 million or 19% of households, roughly double the size of the early 2000s, according to the English Housing Survey. This is higher than those renting social housing.

Issues affecting tenants have never been more politically visible, whether it’s safety after the Grenfell Tower tragedy or attempts to ban no-fault evictions after the Covid pandemic. The housing affordability crisis has also created more renters than ever, especially in the private sector.

The Conservative Party manifesto pledges to eventually ban no-fault evictions. The party first proposed the policy in 2019, but the bill did not become law before the end of the last parliament.

The Labor manifesto says it will stamp out no-fault evictions and empower tenants to challenge what are described as unreasonable rent increases. Keir Starmer has said Labor will introduce new laws to prevent rental “bidding wars” if his party wins the election.

The Lib Dems are also pledging to ban no-fault evictions and say they will make three-year tenancies the default. The Greens are also backing an end to no-fault evictions and say they want the introduction of long-term tenancies.

The Reform Party does not support the tenant reform bill introduced in the previous parliament. They say it will boost “the monitoring, appeals and enforcement process for aggrieved tenants.”

With all parties vying for tenant support and policy offerings often overlapping, how could this influential bloc make a difference on the Fourth of July?

There are a good number of constituencies with large numbers of private renters where this vote could very well decide the outcome. In London places like Kensington and Bayswater, Finchley and Golders Green and Chipping Barnet, where more than 20% of people are private renters, are owned by the Conservative Party but can be vulnerable. There are similar situations outside London, with Tory-held seats such as Colchester, Eastbourne, Cheltenham and in Red Wall, Burnley, all constituencies where more than 20% of people are private renters, now targeted by Labor or Liberal- the democrats.

So how will tenants vote? People living in social housing are more likely to be from working class and ethnic minority backgrounds and have always been more likely to lean left. But the trend to support work among private renters is relatively new.

In the 2010 general election, private tenants were just as likely to vote Conservative as Labor – both parties got around 26% of the vote.

By 2015 this had changed, with Labor gaining a 15 percentage point lead over the Conservatives. Under the previous Conservative-led coalition government, there were reforms to Housing Benefit which made housing harder to find for some who rely on benefits to help them rent privately.

Since then, this divide has solidified, exacerbated by the age gap over Brexit and immigration. In recent years, voting patterns have varied more and more by age, with young people leaning more and more towards Labour, in particular. Most private renters are relatively young.

The youngest voters are the most likely to say housing is one of the main issues facing the country – it is ranked as a top three issue for 18-34 year olds according to the IPSOS Issue Tracker and not as important for older groups. .

Young people seem far more likely to vote Labor than any other party, but it is also true that the Green Party enjoys the highest poll numbers among the same group.

For Labor there is also the very real risk that private tenants will not vote at all.

Not only are young people far less likely to vote than their older counterparts, renters are also less likely to vote than homeowners.

This has always been the case, but has been exacerbated by the 2014 electoral registration reforms, which Electoral Commission research shows disproportionately affected tenants, who move much more often.