Britain’s weirdest constituency – UnHerd

There is an odd mix of houses along the hawker route near Endcliffe Park – palatial Victorian villas, more modest bungalows and low-rise blocks of flats. Voters are just as eclectic. One describes himself as “apolitical” and refuses to submit Blake to his block so he can post flyers. Another is excited to see who Blake is: “Animal lover!” he cries “Yes!” Blake agrees. He goes on to talk to her in detail about recent events among the local badger populations – before confirming that he will indeed be voting Labour.

In another house, a clear voice on the intercom is apologetic but firm. “Ok, I’m going to stop you right there,” she instructs Blake. She would vote Labor if it weren’t for one problem: their policy of charging VAT on private school fees. “Under no circumstances will I ever vote Labor unless the policy changes,” she tells Blake, explaining that she works for a private school that may have to close. “I wouldn’t send any of my kids to public schools in the area,” she says. As we leave, Blake says she thinks the claims of school closures are a bit “over the top” and that’s not the point of the policy.

Blake herself is on the left of the Labor Party, having served in Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinet and being less in tune with the current Starmer leadership. I ask her how concerned she was about the way left-wing figures like Diane Abbott were treated. “Everyone was a bit worried about Diane, but I’m glad we made the right decision about it,” she says.

The following week, Shaffaq Mohammed suggests a meeting outside at the Endcliffe Park cafe, meaning right next to the funfair. It feels very fitting for the Lib Dems, whose national campaign was themed around Ed Davey pulling various silly stunts. Mohammed reveals he was invited along with Davey to Thorpe Park, but “me and the rides don’t go”.

Mohammed – or ‘Shaff’ as his team calls him – is also the leader of the Lib Dem group on the council. On the doorstep, he explains that voters’ biggest issues are the NHS and the environment, in that order. He draws particular attention to dentistry, explaining that he, like many, waited for an appointment at the Charles Clifford Dental Hospital to have a tooth fixed.

On the environmental front, he talks at length about sewage dumping, describing the number of spills in Hallam as unacceptable. He has tried to drive a wedge with Labor over the issue – one of Mohammed’s recent leaflets claimed that “our Labor MP voted with the government to let (Yorkshire Water) loose”. The vote he refers to is one amendment to bring Ofwat, the water regulator, under the Growth Charge – which requires regulators to consider promoting economic growth. Mohammed claims this could allow water companies to avoid fines for polluting rivers. Blake would not comment on the specifics of that law, but her spokesman told me: “This is a feeble attempt by the Lib Dems to claim credit for the hard work that campaigners and the Labor caucus have done to push the issue to the forefront. of the political agenda.”

Despite losing his seat more than five years ago, Nick Clegg still looms large over Hallam. As he reveals Financial times, Clegg donated to the local Liberal Democrats – although how much is unclear. Mohammed tells me they are in touch occasionally. He admits the issue of student fees – which has done so much to turn some voters away from Clegg – is still knocking on the door. Whether that’s fair or not is one thing (Mohammed points out that neither side is now proposing to cut tuition fees), but they may still be left with some of those 20-year-olds who have moved at Hallam.

“Despite losing his seat more than five years ago, Nick Clegg still looms over Hallam.”

So who will win on the 4th of July? On a reading, Labor should stitch it up. In 2019, “Peak Corbyn” truly came to an end, as the Labor MP for Sheffield Hallam in the previous parliament, Jared O’Mara, was expelled from the party for making misogynistic and homophobic comments, and was later convicted of fraud. If the Lib Dems couldn’t hold the seat even then, surely a rising Labor Party will do so comfortably? Most bookmakers are currently backing Labor to retain – offering just 1/5 on that outcome, compared to 3/1 for the Lib Dems.

But things are not quite that simple. Not least because 2024 could see Tory support collapse as their campaign continues to falter. The party chose its Hallam candidate a few weeks ago – Isaac Howarth, currently a student at Sheffield University – and there is no sign of Tory leaflets in the constituency. It’s fair to say he’s not looking to fight here.

If the Tory vote collapses, things get unpredictable. If those supporters drift away from the Lib Dems, as they did in 1997, then they could still wrest Hallam back. And Mohammed points out that if you count the votes from this year’s local elections in all five Sheffield Hallam wards, the Lib Dems come out comfortably ahead – with 13,133 votes to Labour’s 9,814.

But Labour’s momentum nationally will be hard to overcome. Blake describes herself as “pretty confident” about winning. “(In 2019) we had to go back three or four times, just to our voters … this time we’re trying to get other people to vote for us.” For those of us staying up to report on the election, it’s likely to be a long night. The smart money is on a recount – but as always in Hallam, I wouldn’t bet on it.

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A version of this piece appeared in The Sheffield Tribune.