Jay Slater’s top three cop theories about what happened in Tenerife

A former senior Metropolitan Police officer believes Jay Slater either plunged into a ravine, deliberately disappeared or could even have been kidnapped.

Jay Slater, 19, has not been heard from since he called his girlfriend, Lucy Mae Law, at around 8am on Monday 17 June. The teenager, from Oswaldtwistle in Lancashire, was due to stay in an Airbnb he had rented in Tenerife with two people he had met. on the island the night before.

But the apartment was “in the middle of nowhere” and the teenager’s phone battery died when he started to return the next morning.

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Now Peter Kirkham, a former Detective Chief Inspector who served in the country’s biggest police force for more than 20 years, has given a grim assessment as the search for Jay enters its 12th day.

Writing for The Mirror, he said: “In the circumstances first reported, and particularly in the last phone call he is known to have made, the most obvious theory is that Jay Slater got lost while trying to return via – a remote and difficult area. area totally unknown to him.”

Acknowledging the difficult terrain of the search area, he said: “He may have also fallen into a ravine or something similar and been injured and incapacitated. This possibility leads to the searches we have seen the police do, but the area involved is so large. large that even now only a fraction could be thoroughly searched.

“Unfortunately, if this is the explanation, after being missing for such a long time, it is unlikely that Jay will be found alive. But the police will continue to review what he did and move on to the next most likely area.”

He continued: “A second possibility, which must always be considered, is that Jay has deliberately disappeared for some reason. As we learn more about him, it appears that he has a somewhat checkered past that could very well have led to his demise. the police will pursue lines of inquiry related to his background and domestic circumstances to identify whether this is a viable possibility.

“This is an aspect of the investigation which UK police will be much better placed to progress. I would hope that the Spanish authorities, who retain primacy in this investigation, have contacted Lancashire Police with a request for assistance in this regard. .”

There is a third possibility, that Jay is being held somewhere against his will.

Peter said: “The third possibility to consider is that Jay was abducted, or worse, by someone else. This could be spur of the moment, stemming from a spontaneous situation that arose or prior planning. something arising from a long-term conflict or dispute.

“The spontaneous version does not have to involve anyone with a significant criminal record and therefore could involve anyone. It doesn’t even have to involve any intent to do you any harm, it could have been some sort of illness or accidental injury followed by panic on his part. others present”.

He continued: “Reports that Jay ditched his friends and went off with two men he apparently just met while doing this is a possibility that needs urgent investigation. point here and the Tenerife police should give priority to investigating this line of inquiry”.

“If, as reported, the men are British and have returned to the UK, then this is again an area where the British authorities are hopefully committed to assisting.”

“The pre-planned version would normally only be something done by people with serious criminal records and/or involve someone with a major conflict with Jay, such as thousands of pounds in debt or criminal assets such as drugs, too. This is another area where the police’s starting point is Jay’s past, with extensive inquiries into his family, friends and associates as well as his own history, although unlikely, this possibility cannot be ruled out.

“Taken together, these three basic categories of theory cover almost all possibilities. In order to conduct a thorough and competent investigation, the police must keep an open mind and pursue lines of inquiry relating to all three.”

“That said, in the real world of limited resources, it is inevitable and perfectly acceptable for the police to prioritize them. So far the priority has been on the first possibility that Jay may have gotten lost and succumbed to illness or injury, but as time goes on. and no trace of him is found, we will need to look more closely at the other options.”

“The nature of the area where Jay was last seen and the size of the area to be searched means that it is unlikely that police will ever be able to definitively rule out that he came to accidental harm.”

“This is compounded by the fact that the police do not have the technological assistance that is now almost always available to them: the area is remote, with very little CCTV coverage, his mobile was reportedly about to run out of power and there is no known vehicle. involved, so automatic number plate readers, even if they exist on relatively few roads, cannot add much to the investigation.”

“In such cases, we have to accept that the investigation will be slow and may never be definitively resolved. This is not due to any failings on the part of the police, although as always there may be things that could have been done better or faster, but it is inevitable in the real world.”

His bleak pessimism is echoed by sources on the island, who fear the teenager will not be found alive if he gets lost in the mountains.

In a recent statement on Thursday, police investigating the teenager’s disappearance noted that it was “highly unlikely” that Jay would be found alive. A reliable Civil Guard source expressed: “No one at this point is talking about the end of the search, although it is very unlikely that Jay would have survived if he got lost in the mountains in the way we are told he did. .”