The Muslim vote is decisive in about 100 constituencies

• Labor votes fall in areas with large Muslim populations.
• Muslim Vote and Henry Jackson Society launch report.
• Muslims are a diverse group, they do not vote in unison or as a bloc.

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LONDON: The British Muslim vote could play a crucial role in around 100 constituencies, including most of the country’s diverse seats, new research has found.

A new campaign group called “The Muslim Vote” and the right-wing “Henry Jackson Society” (HJS) put the number of seats at 92 and 120 respectively, saying the population is more than 10% Muslim in about 100 seats.

The Henry Jackson Society’s research into religious diversity in UK constituencies puts the number at 120, where the Muslim vote may play a major role, particularly in swing seats.

The HJS said that of the 220 most marginal seats in the general election, Islam is the largest minority religion in 129 of them (58.6%); the second largest minority religion in marginal seats is Hinduism in 23 of them (10.5%), followed by Sikhism in six marginal seats (2.7%) and Judaism in three (1.4%).

The swing seats were identified by political consultancy Electoral Calculus, which defines a marginal seat as one where the margin of victory is expected to be 10% or less.

The 220 marginal seats in the general election represent a third (33.8%) of all available seats. Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, said the results of their latest MRP survey with Savanta found that religion is a “significant factor” in how people vote.

A demonstration of this came when, in local elections earlier this year, dozens of candidates across the country ran on a Gaza ticket and defeated their Labor rivals – dealing a huge blow to Labor in areas it took them for granted for decades.

The Labor vote fell in areas with large Muslim populations, including Blackburn, Bradford, Pendle, Oldham, Luton, London and Manchester. If the same pattern is repeated in the July 4 election by Gaza candidates, Labor support will collapse further in these areas.

The Muslim Vote, a campaign group set up by grassroots Muslim organizations to encourage Muslim turnout, has identified around 92 seats where Muslim voters hold more than 10% of the total vote.

However, all agree that Muslims are a diverse group and do not vote in unison or as a bloc. They are divided along political, ethnic and sectarian lines.

Geo News has prepared the following list of constituencies:

1-Bradford West (54%)

2-Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley (49%)

3-East Ham (43%)

4-Blackburn (42%)

5-Birmingham Ladywood (42%)

6-Bethnal Green and Stepney (40%)

7-Dewsbury and Batley (39%)

8-Bradford East (39%)

9-Birmingham Perry Barr (38%)

10-Ilford South (37%)

11-Birmingham Yardley (37%)

12-Birmingham Hodge Hill (33%)

13-Leicester South (31%)

14-Poplar and linden (30%)

15-Oldham West (28%)

6-Manchester Rusholme (27%)

17-Stratford and Bow (27%)

18-Slough (27%)

19-Luton North (27%)

20-Ilford North (27%)

21-Luton South and South Bedfordshire (26%)

22-Rochdale (26%)

23-Barking (24%)

24-Gorton and Denton (24%)

25-Brent East (23%)

26-Leicester East (22%)

27-West Ham and Beckton (22%)

28-Queen’s Park and Maida Vale (21%)

29-Walthamstow (21%)

30-Bolton South and Walkden (21%)

31-Edmonton and Winchmore Hill (20%)

32-Leyton and Wanstead (20%)

33-Walsall and Bloxwich (19%)

34-Huddersfield (18%)

35-Hayes and Harlington (17%)

36-Ealing North (17%)

37-Bradford South (17%)

38-Oldham East and Saddleworth (17%)

39-Ealing Southall (17%)

40-Derby South (16%)

41-Burnley (16%)

42-Wycombe (16%)

43-Preston (16%)

44-Smethwick (16%)

45-Holborn and St Pancras (16%)

46-Enfield North (15%)

47-Harrow West (15%)

48-Feltham and Heston (15%)

49-Brent West (15%)

50-Brentford and Isleworth (15%)

51-Peterborough (15%)

52-Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough (15%)

53-Bolton North East (14%)

54-Ealing Central and Acton (14%)

55-Hendon (14%)

56- Halifax (14%)

57-Nottingham East (14%)

58-Tottenham (14%)

59-Manchester Central (13%)

60-Harrow East (13%)

61-Pendle and Clitheroe (13%)

62-Birmingham Edgbaston (13%)

63-Southgate and Wood Green (13%)

64-Blackley and Middleton South 13%)

65-Keighley and Ilkley (13%)

66-Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West (12%)

67-Hyndburn (12%)

68-Croydon West (12%)

69-Hackney North and Stoke Newington (12%)

70-Dagenham and Rainham (12%)

71-Cities London and Westminster (12%)

72-Coventry East (11%)

73-Sheffield Central (11%)

74-Leeds North East (11%)

75-Birmingham Erdington (11%)

76-Chingford and Woodford Green (11%)

77-Middlesbrough and Thornaby East (11%)

78-Kensington and Bayswater (11%)

79-Mitcham and Morden (11%)

80-Hackney South and Shoreditch (11%)

81-Watford (10%)

82-Leeds East (10%)

83-Hampstead and Highgate (10%)

84-Birmingham Selly Oak (10%)

85-Sheffield South East (10%)

86-Stretford and Urmston (10%)

87-Bury North (10%)

88-Streatham and Croydon North (10%)

89-Hammersmith and Chiswick (10%)

90-Uxbridge and South Ruislip (10%)

91-Islington North 10%). Watford (10%)

92-Leeds East (10%)

93-Hampstead and Highgate (10%)

94-Birmingham Selly Oak (10%)

95-Sheffield South East (10%)

96-Stretford and Urmston (10%)

97-Bury North (10%)

98-Streatham and Croydon North (10%)

99-Hammersmith and Chiswick (10%)

100-Manchester Withington (11%)