The Tories face total destruction in Greater Manchester, final polls predict

The Conservatives are on course to lose every seat in Greater Manchester, according to the final polls published ahead of the general election. Three mega-polls published today (July 4) predicted Labor would win a landslide majority.

YouGov predicts a total Tory sweep in the North West, while another mega-poll by Focaldata predicts Labor will win 444 seats in Parliament. More in Common suggested the Tories could face their worst ever result, losing 239 seats.

All three mega-polls predict Labor will win every seat in Greater Manchester except Hazel Grove and Cheadle, where the Lib Dems are expected to finish first. Two of the pollsters said Labor would win in the Tory towns of Tatton and Macclesfield.

READ MORE: After 14 years of Tory rule, is Manchester bigger?

More in Common puts Labor and the Tories neck-and-neck in former Tory chancellor George Osborne’s old seat of Tatton. It is one of 52 seats that are “too close to call”, according to the polling organisation, some of which some ministers are contesting.

None of the mega-polls predict Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will lose his seat, but all three suggest Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will. Nigel Farage is set to become an MP for the first time, according to two pollsters, with his Reform UK party coming second in many constituencies across the country, including Leigh and Atherton, both in Oldham and three in Manchester.

These mega-polls predict that Labor will win comfortably in Rochdale, where George Galloway is running for re-election. But according to Electoral Calculus, which uses a different model, the result in this seat is expected to be close to the Labor Party, slightly ahead.

Electoral calculation predicts that Labor will win comfortably in Bury North, despite party sources predicting it will be a close contest. The Bolton West race, which, like Bury North, is a bellwether, regardless of whether the seat is usually won by Britain’s biggest party, is also said to be close.

These MRP polls use national voting intention data to model how people will vote in each constituency based on demographics, voting behavior and other information about that area. These are the last polls to be published before the election.