General election: Labor set to lose Bristol Central seat to Greens, latest YouGov poll suggests

Bristol will lose a Labor seat to the Green Party at the next general election, the latest YouGov poll suggests. 47,751 adults were polled across the UK between June 19 and July 2 before revealing these shocking results ahead of the historic election.

Bristol Central – the new name for the slightly smaller and more concentrated former Bristol West constituency – has two front-runners – Labor MP Thangam Debbonaire and Green Party candidate Carla Denyer. However, given the poll results, it looks like Denyer is leading the two.

Brighton Pavilion was the only seat won by the Greens in the 2019 election, and the party’s vote share remained largely unchanged at 55%. But now, in Bristol Central, the Greens are predicted to win 52% of the vote.

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In both constituencies, Labor is in second place with an estimated share of 27% and 34% of the vote. The Green Party experienced a wave of success following the local elections, where the number of Green councilors was increased to 812.

Co-leader Adrian Ramsay said: “After so much damage from the Conservative government we finally need more than a few changes from a new Labor government.” Speaking on the BBC in May, Carla Denyer said voters in Bristol had chosen pluralism.

She said: “The Greens campaigned to move from a mayoral system to a committee because we believe that no party has a monopoly on good ideas and we want to work across parties. The Labor Party still has a reasonable number of councilors in Bristol. The City Council, they still have support and we will be very prepared to work with them in areas where we agree.”

Elsewhere, YouGov revealed the Conservative party is set to be relegated to third place in the South West, with both Labor and the Lib Dems poised for substantial gains. Labor is on course to take 24 seats, closely followed by the Liberal Democrats on 23.

Seats per party according YouGov: