Leicester City must remember the lesson of relegation if a tempting £45m move is proposed

As much research as managers do before joining new clubs, whether it’s watching old matches or analyzing statistics, they can’t really come to any conclusions about the players they inherit until they’re on the training ground and train.

That goes for Steve Cooper at Leicester City and Enzo Maresca now at Chelsea. And after a few weeks of the old City boss overseeing his new side in the capital, it has emerged that he wants a new goalkeeper. It’s worrying.

For now, the line is that Maresca likes Robert Sanchez and will install him as Chelsea’s number one this season, but that he wants someone to challenge and push him. And with Mads Hermansen being his first-choice goalkeeper target at City, Maresca will no doubt be telling Chelsea to consider the Dane.

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When Maresca moved to Stamford Bridge, Hermansen was at the top of the list of City players expected to be poached, above Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. Having a goalkeeper who is both talented and composed with the ball at his feet is integral to Maresca’s style of play and he felt, based on the quality of the players he was inheriting versus those he was leaving behind, that Hermansen will give him a slight upgrade. .

So how much would the 24-year-old be worth if Chelsea came calling? A figure emerged at the weekend which explains that City value the Dane at £45m. For those who don’t follow the club closely, this may seem difficult for a goalkeeper who cost just £6.5m a year ago, even though he earned a place in the Championship team of the season.

But City fans might say that’s not enough. Because while there were plenty of lessons to be learned from their latest relegation, one that stands out is how important a good goalkeeper is. In short, it can be the difference between staying up and going down, and that’s worth a lot more than £45m.

Look at the statistics for the 22-23 season, and the worst performing goalkeepers by the expected goals after shots measure – how likely the shots on goal faced by a goalkeeper are to find the net based on the league average – were Gavin Bazunu, Illan Meslier, Dean Henderson and Danny Ward. Among that quartet is the number one for the three teams that went down, with Southampton and Leeds joining City in the drop zone.

Henderson, meanwhile, did not recover at Nottingham Forest after picking up an injury, and thus only played half the season. Keylor Navas ended the campaign in goal and Forest stayed awake. That seems decisive.

Based on the data, City were expected to concede 55 goals from the shots on goal they faced, just sixth worst in the division. In fact, they conceded 68 goals. Meanwhile, at another relegation rival in Everton, the stats said they should have conceded 60 goals. With Jordan Pickford between the sticks, they conceded 57.

Entering this season with Hermansen corrects that problem. Because not only is he excellent with his feet, but he also keeps the ball out of the net. No goalkeeper in the Championship performed as well as Hermansen in this measure last season, with the Dane preventing six more goals than he was expected to concede.

Now, City could probably sign a very good goalkeeper, and with the spare change, selling Hermansen for £45m. But there would be no guarantees that a new man would fit in at City. Good players flop at new clubs all the time.

With Hermansen, City have guarantees. They have a year of evidence that he can handle the pressure of being number one, that he works well in tandem with the defenders at the club and that he fits in with the group as a whole.

In short, keeping him is their safest bet. If a big offer came along, it would certainly be tempting given the huge profit it could fetch. But to stay up, City must prove they have learned the lessons of two seasons ago. Rejecting any advances for Hermansen and keeping him as number one would be proof that one of the problems of their relegation has been understood and addressed.

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