What does the team need to deliver to get the promotion?

Pre-ambul

By Jason McKeown

We need to talk about expectations for Bradford City – and those expectations start and end with the P word. Promotion.

Stefan Rupp stated that this is the objective. The fans are certainly asking for it. And with League Two looking weaker on paper, it must be a prize to be won. Indeed, there is no other stage. No other mission is as important.

Any kind of promotion will be of course. But to make sure it happens, a top three finish is definitely the target. Yes, we will promote through the play-offs at Wembley. Of course we will. But the painful way in which Bradford City’s last three play-off campaigns have ended shows that there are no guarantees that a top-seven finish will get you promotion. Top three then please. With a play off completes a reserve option.

The big question is whether we have a good enough squad to get automatic promotion. It’s something we’ll be looking at in depth on WOAP this week, with Tim Penfold and Alex Scott joining me to outline each member of the team and our overall strengths and weaknesses. Where are the gaps left to fill before the window closes? What areas of the batch give us hope that this year can be a successful one?

Before we get into it, though, let’s talk a little more about those targets.

On average, a third place in League Two requires 24 wins, 72 goals and 82 points

We’ve looked at the numbers from the last 10 completed League Two seasons (so we’ve ignored the limited 2019/20 campaign) to find out how many points are usually needed to finish at least third in League Two. This table shows City’s third-placed average and record in League 2 last season:

City’s ninth-placed record last season was always going to be inferior, but it’s a useful way of measuring the gaps. Basically, they need to win five more games this season compared to last, score 11 more goals and concede 10 less.

In the last 10 full Ligue 2 seasons, every third-placed team has won at least 23 matches and lost at most 13 times. Only twice have teams sealed the final spot by scoring fewer goals than City’s 61 last season (Bury scored 60 in 2014/15 and Bolton 59 in 2020/21). And only one team has won the third by conceding more goals than City’s 59 last season (Wycombe put in 60 in 2017/18).

On average, a seventh place in League Two requires 20 wins, 63 goals and 72 points

How about that consolation prize of a play off final? Again, we ran the numbers for the top seven positions over the same period. This table shows the average seventh place record and compares it to City’s record in League 2 last season:

The gap was always going to be tighter here, and what stands out in particular is that City’s attacking savvy was reasonably up to the standard required to finish at least seventh. They scored just two goals less than average (61 goals to 63). In the last 10 completed seasons, four teams have finished seventh while achieving fewer than City’s 61 (York 52 in 2013/14, Plymouth 55 in 2015/16, Newport 59 in 2018/19 and Tranmere 20205 in 2013/14).

City’s defensive record is certainly still an issue. Only Crawley last season finished seventh while conceding more goals than City. Interestingly, the teams finishing third and seventh on average have similar defensive records (50 goals conceded).

It’s worth adding – as we’ve already talked about this pre-season – that when looking at City’s record last season following Alexander’s arrival, the picture is more encouraging. If Alexander’s record 31 games were extrapolated into a 46 game season, they would have 77 points, scored 67 goals and conceded 56. Enough points for a play off cel little bit.

All this suggests that if City can concede less than 50 goals this season, they can finish in the play-offs and maybe even in the top three. But they will need to score a bit more goals to reach the play-offs and must become much more prolific if they are to nail down a place in the top three.

So that hit the mark. A defense that can deliver 10 goals less than overall last season – when defensively they were very good. And an attack that must participate with 11 or more goals.

We need to keep these numbers in mind as we begin to delve deeper into the team and each area of ​​the team. Are we strong enough to significantly reduce the number of goals conceded and are we strong enough to increase the number of times we find the back of the net?

Let’s find out in the next few days. Starting with the goalkeepers.

(A quick note to say – all 2023/24 stats are based on League Two fixtures only.)

Sam Walker

By Jason

Bradford City’s recruitment team have rightly had a good run in the last year, but one move they have certainly rectified has been bringing in Sam Walker. Harry Lewis’ January departure to Carlisle came as a surprise. But with Walker, City have swapped a string of increasingly erratic goalkeeping displays for solid, reliable consistency. Walker at his best isn’t quite Lewis at his best, but Walker at his worst is certainly a lot better than Lewis at his worst.

Walker made 20 appearances for the Bantams last season, keeping seven clean sheets. He was a soothing presence. Nothing flashy. Just a good shot stopper. He couldn’t come from behind as effectively as Lewis, but under Alexander’s direct style that didn’t matter.

The next challenge for Walker is to do what he has done for 20 games in an entire season. Become that consistent and reliable goalkeeper that any club with serious promotion aspirations always needs.

For a player who has led a nomadic existence since 2021 – City is his fifth different club in three seasons – it’s all about making this a happy home. Walker is under contract until next summer. If he picks up where he left off last season, he’s a shoe in to win another deal.

What a good season looks like: He plays every week and doesn’t disappoint with a string of decent displays contributing to a good defensive record. Ben Williams in 2015/16.

What a great season it looks like: He produced a season of outstanding performances that included numerous match-winning saves, culminating in City’s promotion. Gary Walsh in 1998/99.

Colin Doyle

By Tim

What about City’s former goalkeeping coach and number two? He did a perfect job last year sitting on the bench and covering in the Football League Trophy, showing he was still a perfectly competent goalkeeper at this level. His recommendation to former teammate Sam Walker proved to be a very good one and suggested a future in scouting may be open to him if coaching doesn’t work out.

This season will likely be the same – a lot of bench time and occasional games in front of a rare Valley parade. There is, however, a question mark over whether he can cover in the event of a serious injury for Walker, and City have had two younger keepers in pre-season to potentially fill Joe O’Shaugnessy’s lesser-seen role . .

What a good season looks like: Basically the same as last season – gets a decent collection of chips from league games and doesn’t disappoint when providing occasional cover. Colin Doyle 2023/24.

What a great season it looks like: He is re-establishing himself as a league goalie through a stroke of luck that befell Walker and is turning back the years with his displays. Gary Walsh 2000/01.

verdict

Looking at the sample size of 22 goals conceded by Walker in 20 games over the course of a season, this would work out to 51 goals conceded. Based on those previous numbers, that would be a defensive record almost good enough to earn an automatic promotion spot. Conceding fewer than 50 goals is something he may be more than capable of (his 22 goals conceded last season included that dreadful City run of 13 goals in four games in March, which was an anomaly).

Then the dashboard has green lights. In City’s quest to concede fewer than 50 goals this season, they have a man between the sticks who offers an encouraging record. Big tick here.

So far so good then. Tomorrow, we continue to look at defense.

Categories: Season preview

Tags: 2024/25, BCAFC