The lack of job growth is the real concern

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin noted on Thursday that the main thing to watch going forward will be the jobs numbers, slightly suggesting that stock markets may have overreacted to recent weak data.

Key highlights

Most hurricanes and tropical storms do not affect the macro economy.

What I’m hearing from people in the labor market is that people are cutting back on hiring but not firing.

No hiring, no firing, that’s what we’re seeing in the data, and it could go either way from here.

The math suggests that the unemployment rate is rising.

What would make you more worried is if job growth started to fade.

To me, the case for a decline in July would have been either the absolute belief that the job market is in the doldrums, or if you thought you had inflation under control.

Stock markets don’t feel like there’s a big cataclysmic event that just happened.

Financial markets look not only at modal prospects, but also at tails.

The US could be headed for a long-term labor shortage.