Bitcoin (BTC) Tests Technical Resistance, Gold (XAU) Is Higher

Bitcoin (BTC) Tests Technical Resistance, Gold (XAU) Is Higher

• Bitcoin rally hits moving average resistance.
• Gold within $60/oz. to post a new all-time record.

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Bitcoin recovered all of its losses this week and returned to levels seen shortly before last Friday’s NFP release sent risk markets tumbling on US recession fears. This week, those concerns were put to rest and risk markets, including Bitcoin, rallied strongly. Printing a new lower low leaves the chart with a negative bias, while the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages are being tested, but have held firm so far. These two moving averages need to be convincingly broken before BTC can make the next move higher. If BTC/USD can break above $70,000, a group of previous highs will prove difficult to overcome in the short term, with a notable double top at $72,000. On the downside, $56.5k should remain if tested.

Daily Bitcoin Price Chart

Chart via TradingView

Gold’s long-term chart remains positive with a series of slightly higher lows and higher highs. The precious metal has trended sideways to a marginal rally since early April, with two breaks of resistance ($2,450/oz) quickly reversed. Gold looks set for another attempt at this level, and if it succeeds, it will hit an all-time high of $2,485/oz. will be tested quickly.

Daily gold price chart

Chart via TradingView

Retail trader data shows that 53.72% of traders are net-long, with the ratio of long-short traders at 1.16 to 1. The number of net-long traders is 12.76% lower than yesterday and 1, 54% higher than last week, while Traders net-short number is 19.83% higher than yesterday and 1.97% lower than last week.

We typically take a contrary view to crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are net-long suggests that gold prices could continue to fall. The positioning is less long than yesterday, but longer than last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a mixed trend for gold trading.

What is your point of view? Gold and Bitcoin – bear or bear?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.