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XAG/USD appreciates near $28.00 due to safe haven flows

  • Silver prices rise as tensions in the Middle East prompt traders to seek safe-haven assets.
  • The Israel Defense Forces intercepted about 30 “projectiles” passing through Lebanon on Monday morning.
  • Diminishing odds of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September could weaken non-yielding assets like silver.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) is rising to near $28.00 per troy ounce during the European session on Monday. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are helping support safe-haven metals like silver.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) intercepted around 30 “projectiles” passing from Lebanon into northern Israel on Monday morning. The IDF said some projectiles landed in open areas and no injuries were reported, as reported by ABC News.

In addition, Reuters cited the Gaza Civil Emergency Service on Saturday as Israel’s incursion into Gaza escalated with an airstrike targeting a school compound, resulting in at least 90 deaths. However, Israel disputed this casualty figure, labeling it exaggerated. Hamas, meanwhile, expressed uncertainty about engaging in new ceasefire talks on Sunday.

Upbeat US economic data last week prompted traders to cut expectations for a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 46.5% chance of a two-quarter basis point interest rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting, down significantly from the 74.0% chance reported a week ago. Expectations of longer interest rates could put pressure on non-yielding assets like silver.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported Sunday that Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman says she continues to see rising risks to inflation and continued strength in the labor market. Bowman suggested the Federal Reserve may not be ready to cut rates at its next meeting in September.

The weak outlook for global manufacturing activity has dampened demand for silver as an industrial input. ISM PMI fell more than expected, highlighting slow US factory momentum. Traders are likely to focus on US producer inflation data due on Tuesday and consumer inflation figures on Wednesday, looking for confirmation that price increases remain steady.

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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