Bitcoin is more likely to fall by $5,000 than to rise by the same amount: analyst

• The BTC market is showing signs of seller dominance, FxPro analyst said.

• BTC rally stalled with Harris ahead of Trump in prediction markets.

Bitcoin’s {{BTC}}’s rapid recovery from the sub-$50,000 price seen last Monday has restored bullish sentiment in the crypto market, prompting calls for a rise to $90,000 and beyond.

One analyst, however, sees renewed short-term losses, with the price down $5,000 from the market rate of around $58,500.

“Bitcoin is likely to fall by $5,000 instead of rising by the same amount,” Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, said in an email.

Kuptsikevich’s bearish view stemmed from bitcoin’s failure to hold gains above $60,000 following a death cross, a bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA).

“Bitcoin is not above $60,000 and is facing selling after trying to break the 50- and 200-day MAs late last week, showing seller dominance,” noted Kuptsikevich.

He added that the 14-day relative resistance index (RSI) is no longer showing oversold conditions, which means another leg lower is possible, consistent with the recent dominance of sellers above $60,000.

The 14-day RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. An RSI below 30, seen after last Monday’s crash, indicates oversold conditions, often heralding a break in the downtrend and price recovery.

“The RSI on the daily timeframe has broken out of oversold territory, losing momentum for more strength,” Kuptsikevich said, explaining his bearish interpretation.

The likelihood of near-term BTC price weakness is likely to increase if July US consumer price index data due on Wednesday shows sticker inflation, dashing hopes of Fed rate cuts in the coming months.

Bitcoin returned to levels above $60,000 late last week, retracing more than 50% of the slide seen in the five days to August 5. Since then, the recovery has stalled, with pro-crypto Republican nominee Donald Trump ceding ground to rival Kamala Harris in the prediction. markets related to the outcome of the US election on November 4.