How Trump’s comments to Musk about swing state strikes could hurt him

During a conversation Monday with Elon Musk on X, Trump praised the Tesla CEO for being “the biggest cutter.”

“I watch what you do. You go in and say, “Do you want to quit?” I won’t mention the name of the company, but they go on strike, and you say, “You’re all out.”

It is not clear which company Trump was referring to. The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

The short-term consequences of Trump’s comments were immediate. The United Auto Workers union has filed unfair labor practice charges against both Trump and Musk, alleging the men intimidated workers who might want to exercise their right to join a union.

The National Labor Relations Board said it would investigate the allegations, which essentially serve as a request for an investigation. Under federal law, it is illegal to fire unionized workers who participate in a protected strike.

“Unforced error”

“It was an unforced error on Trump’s part,” said Christian Grose, a professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southern California.

It’s true, experts said, that union members have historically voted for Democrats. President Joe Biden has fashioned himself as the most pro-union president in decades — a name Vice President Kamala Harris seems eager to adopt.

What’s also true is that some union members have been increasingly open to voting Republican in recent years, especially those in blue-collar positions such as manufacturing, Grose said. Trump won over blue-collar workers in 2016 in part because of his campaign messaging around the economy, when he criticized trade deals he said hurt American workers.

As Harris’ numbers rise, Trump clearly wants at least some of the union vote. He took aim at the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, a group of 1.4 million members that has yet to endorse a candidate.

Sean O’Brien, president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, who spoke at the Republican National Convention, told Politico of Trump’s recent comments: “Firing workers for organizing, striking and exercising their rights as Americans is economic terrorism.”

But the former president’s stance, which he broadcast to more than a million listeners on Monday, could jeopardize that sought-after support, political experts said.

“Given how tight this race has gotten, Trump can’t afford to lose any voter group, and especially not union people,” said Trish Crouse, a political science and public administration practitioner who resides in New University. Refuge.

Swing state mobilization

While Trump may have lost a small number of previously undecided union voters with his comments on Monday, the most likely result of his apparent disdain for striking workers is that he angered a sizable group of Democratic voters who just found a new reason to leave. out and try to win over more voters to their side, Grose said.

“There’s a difference between having to go out and mobilize voters because it’s part of your job and being really motivated to mobilize,” Grose said.

Unions have long been a powerful political force with their highly sought after endorsements and organizational skills. But their real power comes in mobilization, Grose said, adding that their influence on elections has often been exaggerated relative to their actual membership numbers.

While membership has seen a steep decline in recent decades, experts said labor groups still wield political power, particularly in a few key swing states.

Three of the states that Harris and Trump will likely fight over on election night have union membership rates above 12 percent.

According to 2023 government data, Nevada has 171,000 union members and 201,000 employees who are union-represented, meaning they did not claim union membership, but jobs that are covered by a union; Michigan has 564,000 union members and 623,000 people have union representation; Pennsylvania has 749,00 union members and 822,000 unionized employees, representing 12.8% and 14.1% of state employment, respectively.

That’s more than 1.6 million unionized people in just three states, who are unlikely to appreciate Trump laughing with a billionaire about undermining workers’ rights, experts said.

“That will light a fire under their rank and file to mobilize,” he added.

The United Auto Workers union quickly pounced on Trump’s recent comments, with President Shawn Fain calling the former president “a slob” and suggesting he opposes “everything our union stands for.”

While Trump’s comments may also have the opposite effect of energizing the business community and anti-union voters, political experts said even business leaders may be happy to speak out in favor of union-busting language.

“I think it was a stupid thing to say so publicly, and especially because it’s not a good time to say something like that,” Grose said.