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XAG/USD looks vulnerable while below 38.2% Fibo. obstacle near $28.50

  • Silver draws fresh sellers and reverses some of Thursday’s move to a near two-week high.
  • The technical setup favors bear traders and supports the prospects for a further bearish move.
  • Sustained strength beyond the $28.50 hurdle is needed to reverse the short-term downside bias.

Silver (XAG/USD) is running into some supply on Friday and is eroding some of the previous day’s strong move to the $28.50 area, or a near two-week high. The white metal remains depressed heading into the European session and is currently trading in the $28.15-$28.10 region, down over 0.70% on the day.

From a technical perspective, the recent recovery from the $26.45 area, or a three-month low, stalled last week near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August decline. This barrier is fixed near the midpoint of $28.00 and should act as a pivotal point, above which another period of short-covering rally should allow XAG/USD to recover the $29.00 mark.

The latter coincides with 50% Fibo. level, which, if decisively removed, should pave the way for further gains. That said, the oscillators on the daily chart – although recovering from lower levels – are yet to confirm a positive bias and warrant caution before positioning for any near-term appreciation moves.

On the other hand, a sustained spike and acceptance below the $28.00 level could pull XAG/USD back towards the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the $27.75 region en route to the $27.45-$27.40 horizontal support. Some further selling could shift the short-term trend back in favor of bear traders and pave the way for further short-term losses towards the $27.00 round figure.

The downward trajectory could extend further towards challenging the multi-month low around the $26.45 area. This is closely followed by the all-important 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around the $26.35-$26.30 region, which, if decisively broken, will produce another breakdown. XAG/USD could then extend the well-established one-month downtrend.

Silver daily chart

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Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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