AI Drones in Ukraine: The Perils of Autonomous War

A dystopian future where swarms of killer drones hunt down human targets is approaching, but fully autonomous AI drones remain an elusive technology, at least on the battlefields of Ukraine.

“The problem of correct identification of enemy targets by drones still remains,” says Viktoria Kovalchuk, spokeswoman for brave1a Ukrainian government organization involved in the development of AI weapons and other military technology.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fueled the rapid advancement of drone technology, which allowed cheap, bomb-carrying quadcopters to take out multimillion-dollar targets. But in the arms race between drones and radio “jammers” that disrupt the signal between the drone and its controller, those defensive measures appear to be winning.

Ukrainian drone pilots are reported to be losing thousands of drones per month to Russian jamming devices. Recent use by Russia aa wire guided drone indicates that the invading army is also struggling to overcome electronic warfare systems.

Some developers in Ukraine are focusing on swarming drone systems, which allow one pilot to fly multiple armed drones, but the top priority for Ukrainian drone developers is “minimizing the impact of electronic warfare,” Kovalchuk says.

“Drones equipped with AI-assisted targeting modules do not require an operator connection during the engagement phase,” Kovalchuk told RFE/RL. “The operator locks onto the target, then the AI ​​takes over the targeting process independently, making it immune to enemy electronic warfare interference.”

Such semi-autonomous drones could override jamming measures. Once the AI ​​tracking system takes over, the drone can cut off the vulnerable radio signal between the drone and its controller and make its own “decisions”.

With visual detection critical, AI drones would likely need to have significantly improved camera systems compared to the current generation of kamikaze drones used by Ukraine and Russia. That would add costs that undermine the main advantage of kamikaze drones: their low price.

In addition, “installing an AI module increases the cost of the drone, complicating the process of scale-up and mass production,” says Kovalchuk. “This is especially relevant for Ukraine, which does not have unlimited resources. Therefore, domestic manufacturers are currently working hard to reduce the cost of such drones.”

Even relatively simple automated targeting systems appear to face challenges from Russia. Recent videos show target tracking software appears to have been disabled by Russian kamikaze drone pilots in favor of manual controls, and the potential for catastrophic error, especially with fully autonomous drones, appears to be an annoying obstacle.

“Manufacturers of these drones often claim that they are safe because the software can distinguish between friendly and civilian well, but we have a lot of anecdotal information from the US and the war in Ukraine that this is not always the case,” Michael. Boyle, associate professor at Rutgers University and the author a book about drone warfarehe told RFE/RL.

Tracking features were available for several years in consumer quadcopters that allow a drone pilot to identify a subject, such as a vehicle, with the touch of a finger on the controller screen. But chasing a sports car is a lot less demanding than locking down camouflaged and elusive targets in a smoky war zone with a drone that will explode against everything it hits.

Another danger is hacking, says Boyle. “If the enemy starts generating friendly fire munitions attacks by hacking or spoofing their signal, the risks of using these drones will skyrocket and we may find soldiers much more reluctant to use them,” he says.

Away from the battlefields of Ukraine, both China and the United States are believed to be building drone armies that could play a significant role in any future conflict.

China dominates the global drone market, largely thanks to Shenzhen manufacturer DJI. Since its first quadcopter was released in 2013, the company has remained firmly ahead of the competition in terms of both features and sales. Today, DJI boasts some 70 percent of the worldwide drone market.

DJI has denied ties to the Chinese military, but analysts say big investment from Beijing as evidence that the authoritarian state may have a hand in the company’s multi-billion dollar operations.

Boyle says it is “clear” Beijing is developing “swarm drones to attack naval vessels and blind them in a potential conflict over Taiwan”.

The drone expert adds that “the US has paid attention to the use of drones in Ukraine and is investing heavily in the production of small, cheap and disposable drones in Replicator program. They are more confident that wars will be fast, lethal and fought with a blizzard of small drones in the future,” he says.

Via RFE/RL

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