US stock futures were largely unchanged; Jackson Hole, Fed Minutes in Focus By Investing.com

Investing.com — U.S. stock futures traded flat on Monday, consolidating from the previous week’s gains, as investors awaited more clues on the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy.

By 06:35 ET (10:35 GMT), the contract was up 10 points, or 0.1%, trading 2 points, or 0.1%, higher and down 4 points, or 0, 1%

Wall Street’s main indexes just had their best week of the year as recent positive data eased worries about the prospect of a recession.

The broad company gained 3.9% for its best week since 2023. The tech product added 5.2% and the blue chip rose 2.9%.

The chances of recession are decreasing

Last week’s rally came after a turbulent start to the month following July’s disappointing reading.

However, it rebounded for July, with its employment component entering expansion territory for the first time since November 2023, economists noted.

Moreover, for July it beat expectations, suggesting strong growth in real consumption, and has declined over the past two weeks.

Goldman Sachs revised its 12-month probability of a U.S. recession to 20 percent from 25 percent, citing recent economic data that showed no signs of a recession.

The increase was positioned midway between the average long-term recession probability of 15% – based on the historical occurrence of a recession every seven years – and the 35% estimate during the banking crisis in early 2023.

Investors will focus this week on the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting on Wednesday ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday.

The winning season will continue

Earnings season continues this week with results on Monday from Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: ) and Estee Lauder (NYSE: ).

Bank of America’s latest survey of fund managers showed a decline in the share of investors overweight stocks, falling to 31 percent from 51 percent.

The survey also found that 40% of CFOs are pressuring CEOs to improve their companies’ balance sheets. Despite the ongoing AI boom, the desire to increase capital spending fell to 24%, the lowest level since November 2023.

Crude looks at the Gaza ceasefire talks

Crude oil prices fell on Monday on concerns about falling demand in top oil importer China, as Middle East ceasefire talks remained in focus.

By 06:35 ET, WTI futures were down 1.1% at $74.69 a barrel, while the contract was down 1% at $78.88 a barrel.

Both benchmarks fell nearly 2 percent late last week after data from China showed its economy lost steam in July, with new home prices falling at the fastest pace in nine years and industrial production slowing and rising unemployment.

Attention now turns to ceasefire talks in Gaza, which are set to continue this week in Cairo after a two-day meeting in Doha last week.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday called Washington’s latest diplomatic attempt to reach a cease-fire deal in Gaza “probably the best, maybe the last opportunity” and urged all sides to push the deal across the line. arrival.

There has been increased urgency to reach a ceasefire deal amid fears of escalation across the region, an escalation that could affect supplies from the oil-rich region.