Shifting labor market gets investors in for a stock jackpot

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released an economic report with very little fanfare. However, from our point of view, this new data could only be received stocks to rise to all-time highs by the end of the month.

Of course, we’re talking about the BLS’s preliminary announcement of current employment statistics report. In it, the bureau provided revisions to employment figures for the US economy between April 2023 and March 2024.

The reviews? Negative 818,000 jobs.

In other words, the US economy added 818,000 fewer jobs in the year ending March 2024 than previously thought.

That’s a big deal—because while the BLS always provides these revisions, they’re usually small. Over the past 10 years, annual office reviews have averaged plus or minus 0.1% of total headcount.

But at -818,000 jobs… this revision amounts to an unusually high 0.5% of the total unemployment number. This is 5 times normal – and it is in the negative direction.

So what does this mean?

It means that the US labor market – once considered solid – is cracking.