Global offshore wind installations will exceed 520 GW by 2040

Offshore wind projects worldwide have faced significant headwinds from recent inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions, exemplified by delayed permitting processes, delayed tenders and slow supply chain consolidations. Despite these challenges, the sector avoided challenges in 2023, recording a 7% increase in new capacity additions compared to the previous year. That momentum is expected to accelerate this year, with new capacity additions expected to rise 9% to more than 11 gigawatts (GW) by the end of the year. Rystad Energy expects this growth in the offshore wind sector to continue at a steady pace and estimates that global installations, excluding mainland China, will exceed 520 GW by 2040.

Europe will play a crucial role in this growth, relying heavily on floating wind to meet ambitious national targets and make the most of its abundant offshore resources. By 2040, the continent is expected to account for more than 70% of global floating wind installations. Although some project delays beyond 2030 are anticipated, there is likely to be a strong push to accelerate implementation. As a result, floating wind capacity is forecast to approach 90 GW by 2040, with the UK, France and Portugal leading development. Asia will also be key in promoting floating wind as a mature technology, with the region – excluding mainland China – expected to capture a 20% share of global installations by 2040.

Although the floating wind sector has seen a recent surge in project announcements, it currently faces similar supply chain constraints to the fixed bottom segment, where wind turbines are installed on fixed foundations in shallow waters. These challenges could hinder the progress of floating wind technology in the near term, with capacity estimates at less than 7 GW by 2030. To overcome these obstacles, increased government support is crucial.

“The global offshore wind sector is experiencing robust growth, fueled by increased investment and tender activity. However, supply chain bottlenecks present significant challenges to the further expansion of the industry. While ambitious targets boost investor confidence, it is critical to address logistical issues to ensure that offshore wind can successfully play a key role in the energy transition. This will not only help the technology mature, but also foster an enabling ecosystem that inspires investor confidence,” said Petra Manuel, Senior Analyst, Offshore Wind at Rystad Energy.

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In the bottom fixed market, we expect the UK, Germany and the Netherlands to become the three dominant players. The countries proximity to the North Sea and extensive maritime areas provide a solid basis for the success of offshore wind, supported by their installation and net zero targets. Together, these three countries are projected to account for a total of 150 GW of installed capacity by 2040, followed by the US at less than 40 GW. The future of the US market depends on its political landscape, with concerns that if presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump were to win, his administration could significantly impede offshore wind development.

Between 2025 and 2030, the Americas, led by the US, will experience significant growth, starting with nearly 2 GW of installed capacity in 2025. Asia, excluding mainland China, will follow, with 7 GW in 2025 and reaching nearly 28 GW by 2030, Taiwan (China), South Korea and Vietnam emerging as major markets in the region. Europe is projected to have 41 GW of installed capacity by 2025 and more than 112 GW by 2030, driven by a steady stream of projects awarded through competitive tenders.

Looking between 2030 and 2035, growth is expected to pick up in Asia, excluding mainland China, followed by the Americas and Europe. During this period, Latin America, particularly Brazil and Colombia, is expected to begin contributing to offshore wind capacity in the Americas.

Rystad Energy’s long-term forecast for the floating wind sector differs significantly from the upward trend seen in the fixed bottom market. From 2025 to 2030, we anticipate that only Asia and Europe will be actively installing floating wind capacity. By 2030, we expect Europe to have almost 5 GW of floating wind installed, while Asia, excluding mainland China, is expected to add 2 GW.

Over the next five-year period, 2030-2035, we foresee a substantial increase in installations. Europe is expected to add 20 GW of floating wind capacity and Asia, excluding mainland China, up to 5 GW. We do not expect floating wind projects to be installed in other regions until 2035-2040, when we anticipate the technology will advance to maturity. By 2040, we forecast that Europe will have installed more than 65 GW of floating wind capacity, while installations in Asia, excluding mainland China, will have reached 17 GW.

By Rystad Energy

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