Northern cities will “remain poorly served” by rail, government advisers warn

Major routes between Birmingham and the North West of England will “remain poorly served” by rail because of cuts to HS2, government advisers have warned.

The National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) said a “do nothing” scenario north of Handsacre Junction, Staffordshire – where HS2 is now planned to stop – was not “sustainable”.

Existing rail infrastructure is a “constraint” on future growth in passenger and freight transport, the Commission’s annual review has found.

Capacity and connectivity cannot be “materially improved” north of Birmingham without further investment in infrastructure, it added.

The review found that there are “a number of specific bottlenecks” between Manchester and Birmingham, saying the West Coast Main Line “already operates at a higher intensity of operation than major high-speed lines in other European countries”, adversely affecting reliability.

Last October, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak scrapped plans to extend HS2 between the West Midlands and Manchester amid rising costs.

The NIC said in its report: “The commission’s analysis suggests that there are key corridors that will remain poorly served, such as links from Birmingham to Manchester and the North West.”

Sir John Armitt, who chairs the NIC, said: “A long-term plan is needed to tackle the key connectivity, capacity and reliability issues of the North and Midlands rail network.”

He admitted that schemes such as the Midlands Rail Hub and Northern Powerhouse Rail “could address” some connectivity issues, but “a critical gap remains in the links between Birmingham, Manchester and the North West”.

Mr Sunak made his HS2 announcement alongside the publication of a government document called Network North, which sets out £36 billion worth of improvements to road, rail and bus services across the UK.

But the NIC found the plans needed “greater specificity” about their “scope, cost, benefits and schedule”.

The commission highlighted the “risk of a fatal loop” for local public transport, with insufficient funding leading to service cuts, further reducing patronage and therefore income.

The analysis also found that the current 30% annual growth rate of new public electric vehicle chargers installed must be maintained to reach the Government’s target of 300,000 by 2030.

This “will become more difficult in the coming years”, with the annual total needed reaching around 75,000 in 2029, the commission warned.

The report said: “The Government must continue to address any barriers to implementation, such as issues in ensuring timely connection to the electricity grid due to capacity constraints and slow progress in building more capacity.

“With less than six years to deliver on its ambition, the government and Ofgem must address these barriers to implementation.”