Modi’s delicate diplomatic dance between East and West

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Ukraine on August 23 in a trip billed as a diplomatic balancing act after Modi’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow last month raised eyebrows in Kiev and the West.

Modi’s visit is the first trip by an Indian leader to Kiev since the countries established bilateral relations more than 30 years ago.

The United States has been particularly concerned about Modi’s two-day visit to Russia because it sees New Delhi as an important pillar in its strategy to contain a rising China.

Indian analysts say the main reason for Modi’s visit is to make up for the damage from his trip to Moscow on July 8-9, which coincided with a deadly Russian missile attack on a children’s hospital in Kiev that drew strong international condemnation.

In a rebuke to the Kremlin, Modi said the deaths of innocent children were “painful”, reiterating India’s stated position that political issues cannot be resolved “on the battlefield”.

More importantly, Modi’s visit to Ukraine should be seen as part of India’s multifaceted foreign policy of “strategic autonomy”.

In pursuit of this goal, New Delhi is treading a fine line courting a closer security partnership with the West — such as its Quad security grouping with Australia, Japan and the United States — as a bulwark against arch-enemy China.

At the same time, India maintains historically warm relations with Russia, relying on cheap Moscow arms and oil. For this reason, India adopted a neutral stance and neither condemned nor accepted Russia’s war in Ukraine, stating that the conflict should be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy.

New Delhi fears that condemning Russia and joining Western sanctions against Moscow would alienate the Kremlin and bring it closer to India’s rivals China and Pakistan.

Similarly, India does not want to alienate Ukraine, but rather to position itself as an impartial stakeholder. In his carefully crafted balancing act, Modi ruled out India’s role as a mediator aimed at ending the war, Bloomberg reported, citing an insider. New Delhi agreed to pass messages between Putin and Zelensky, the statement said.

From Ukraine’s point of view, India has played a key role in getting states in the so-called Global South to either stay neutral on the war or show support for Ukraine, according to Bloomberg.

Expanding economic cooperation

Modi and Zelenskiy last met in June on the sidelines of the Group of Seven meeting in Italy. They have also spoken on the phone several times since the start of the war.

In addition to the geopolitical talks, which are taking place against the backdrop of Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, the leaders must focus on expanding economic cooperation.

Bilateral trade between India and Ukraine reached $3.3 billion in the 2021-22 financial year, according to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, a fraction of the $65 billion annual turnover between India and Russia.

Ukraine wants to strengthen economic ties with India, particularly in the fields of agriculture, aviation, pharmaceuticals and industry, Zelenskiy said earlier this year.

In turn, India needs defense products from Ukraine, especially aircraft and marine engines.

Modi’s visit to Ukraine could provoke a backlash from Russia in a similar way to how his visit to Moscow drew the ire of Washington.

The challenge for Indian diplomacy is to calibrate its private messages to assuage the concerns of both countries while presenting the trip as a bold new initiative, wrote Shashi Tharoor, a former Indian minister and diplomat.

“Resolving this would be a geopolitical triumph. But if the visit goes awry, it could cause incalculable damage to India’s global standing,” Tharoor said in an August 13 statement. comment for Project Syndicate.

Before Ukraine, Modi visited Polanda strong ally of Kiev on August 22, the first trip by an Indian leader to Warsaw in more than 40 years.

Via RFE/RL

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