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XAG/USD depreciates to $29.50 despite a dovish Fed

  • Silver pars gains on the day despite upbeat sentiment around the US Fed.
  • The Fed’s Powell indicated that the time has come to cut rates, but did not provide the extent of the cuts.
  • The gray metal received support from refuge flows amid rising tensions in the Middle East.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) is falling to near $29.70 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Monday. However, non-yielding silver is also attracting investors as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to offer an interest rate cut of at least 25 basis points in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now fully anticipate a rate cut of at least a quarter basis point (bps) by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting.

In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday: “The time has come for policy to adjust.” While Powell did not specify when the rate cuts would begin or their potential size, he noted that labor market risks have increased while inflation risks have decreased.

The price of silver gained ground on concerns about the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones into Israel on Sunday, prompting a response from the Israeli military, which deployed about 100 planes to strike Lebanon to prevent a larger attack. The escalation raises concerns that the ongoing conflict in Gaza could spill over into a wider regional conflict that could involve Hezbollah’s backer Iran and Israel’s main ally the United States, according to Reuters.

Silver demand could be hurt by recent data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which points to a struggling economy in the world’s largest manufacturing hub. As silver plays a crucial role in various industrial applications, this decline in industrial activity could pose significant challenges to its demand.

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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