PEPE looks set for a 15% crash, erasing recent gains

• Pepe’s price is retesting and failing to break above the 200-day EMA at around $0.0000095, signaling a bearish price ahead.
• Chain data shows that PEPE’s long-short ratio is below one, also suggesting a bearish move.
• A daily candlestick close above $0.0000098 would invalidate the bearish thesis.

Pepe (PEPE) price looks to pare back most of its recent gains after retesting and failing to break above resistance at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on Saturday and down 3.6% on Sunday. At the time of writing, it is trading slightly down 1% on Monday. In addition, the data in the chain suggest support for future bearishness, as evidenced by a long-short ratio below one.

Pepe is facing resistance around the 200-day EMA

Pepe’s price retested and faced resistance from the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) around $0.0000095 on Saturday. This 200-day EMA roughly coincides with the broken uptrend line that previously acted as resistance and a 50% price retracement level. At the time of writing, it is trading down 1% at $0.0000090 on Monday after falling 3.6% on Sunday.

If the $0.0000095 level continues to hold as resistance, PEPE could crash 15% to retest daily support at $0.0000077.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is trading just above its neutral level of 50, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is trading below its neutral level of zero. Both indicators need to trade below their neutral levels for bearish momentum to be sustained.

PEPE/USDT daily chart

According to Coinglass data, PEPE’s long-short ratio is 0.885 months. This report reflects bearish sentiment in the market, as a number below one suggests that more traders anticipate the token’s price to drop, reinforcing the bearish outlook of the frog-themed meme coin.

Long-short PEPE chart

Despite the bearishness signaled by both chain data and technical analysis, the outlook will change to bullish if PEPE’s daily candle closes above $0.0000098. This scenario could lead to a 5% rally to retest its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.000010.