Last week’s performer – Commerzbank

The price of aluminum posted the strongest gain among LME metals last week, up 7.5% from the previous week. It wasn’t just the hope of a quick rate cut in the US that provided the impetus, notes Barbara Lambrecht, commodities analyst at Commerzbank.

Aluminum prices are slightly down again today

“There were also concerns on the supply side after the futures price of alumina, the intermediate product between bauxite and refined aluminum, rose significantly on the Shanghai Future Exchange due to a sharp drop in stocks recorded at the SHFE. At the end of last year and then again in May, a spike in the price of alumina has already caused a spike in aluminum prices. However, alumina market prices fell rapidly again at that time and the LME price also fell as a result. In fact, alumina prices have come down somewhat again this time as well.”

“While overall we think aluminum is well supported as capacity at major supplier China is only marginally expanded, and at the same time the medium-term demand outlook is positive as the metal is in demand during the transformation process, we believe prices have rose a little too quickly in recent days and that upside potential has now been exhausted in the short term. After trading on the LME was closed yesterday, aluminum prices are slightly lower again today.”