The Atlantic hurricane season could intensify in the coming weeks, forecasters say

AccuWeather forecasters warn that the Atlantic hurricane season could intensify in the coming weeks as less wind shear and less dry air create favorable conditions for storm development.

AccuWeather predicts six to 10 named storms will form in the Atlantic between August 27 and September 30. The historical average during this period is six named storms.

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“We could see a parade of storms developing in September,” said Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert at Accuweather. “There is a possibility that we could see more tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin on the same day, similar to the frequency of storms we’ve seen during other supercharged hurricane seasons like 2020.”

Sept. 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, daSilva said.

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Hurricane development in the Atlantic basin was limited for much of the summer as near-record levels of dust and dry air from the Sahara prevented tropical storm formation. However, AccuWeather expects both inhibiting factors to ease in the final days of August.

Warm water, less Saharan dust and reduced wind shear will create the ingredients for an active September.

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“With extremely warm water temperatures, less disruptive wind shear and less dry air, we could see a storm forming every few days,” daSilva said.

The warm waters and favorable conditions could even extend the threat of tropical storms into November, daSilva said.

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While Florida and the Gulf Coast are always on high alert this time of year, AccuWeather experts warn that the storms are creating greater impacts further inland with destructive winds and flooding.

Beryl spawned strong tornadoes in the Midwest and Northeast, while Debby caused widespread flooding in Florida and the Carolinas, through Pennsylvania and upstate New York.

Several regions along the East Coast could see an increased risk of flash flooding if another tropical storm or hurricane develops in September, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.

“The ground is saturated and additional rainfall can run off quickly, leading to renewed flooding concerns,” Porter said. “Any new tropical threats bringing heavy rain to the Carolinas, Atlantic Ocean and Northeast could quickly cause more flash flooding, which is a major concern in September.”