One Wall Street analyst thinks AST SpaceMobile shares will reach $46. Is it a purchase around $30?

Excitement rises for AST SpaceMobilehis (ASTS -8.90%) initial commercial satellite launch in the first half of September. The stock rose in anticipation of the launch of the company’s five commercial BlueBird satellites, which are at Cape Canaveral awaiting the next launch window.

Scotiabank analyst Andres Coello believes investors should own AST stock for several reasons and has just raised his price target to $45.90 per share from $28. That implies a gain of about 47% from Tuesday’s close. And that comes after the stock was up 400% for the year through Tuesday’s close.

Becoming a global wireless leader

But Coello didn’t raise the company’s price target just because of the launch event. In a research note this week, Coello wrote that “the buy rating is not based on a near-term trading opportunity, but on the company’s potential to become the world’s largest wireless company by subscribers.” This could come by reaching the massive global population currently without internet access.

Coello’s optimism about AST’s business is based on two main factors. First, revenue from FirstNet is expected to reach $150 million in 2026, rather than the previous assumption of $60 million. FirstNet, run by AT&Tis the national public safety network built for emergency response. It plans to use AST’s satellite network. The analyst also sees lower financing costs contributing to a higher valuation.

As AST’s business model matures and achieves more milestones, funding costs should decrease. This could attract more investors to AST SpaceMobile. But there are still many moving pieces with this early-stage company. Scotiabank had just raised its price target to $28 less than two weeks ago.

That shows how quickly estimates and the situation could change. Investors interested in AST shares should have the appropriate risk tolerance for such an investment. But it has the potential to be a long-term speculative winner.