Inside Republicans’ Anxiety About Trump

Good morning and welcome to the US Election Countdown. Today let’s discuss:

• Republicans’ frustration with the Trump campaign

• Conservative superstar lawyer Eugene Scalia

• Gasoline prices and energy sector concerns

Some Republicans, including strategists and donors, are increasingly irritated by the way Donald Trump is approaching his campaign to win back the White House (free to read).

They’re not panicking about Trump’s electoral prospects — Republican strategist John Feehery told me Kamala Harris would need to rise 7 percentage points in the national polls for real fear to set in — but they are concerned about his inability to to find effective lines of attack. They are also not amused by what they see as exaggerated media coverage of Harris’ campaign.

As Republican strategist Kevin Madden told me:

The prevailing mood among Republicans, based on the past month, has been one of frustration. . . her campaign was allowed to cruise the coast for a month and receive a free pass. The best time to define it was right out of the gate.

Trump has signaled that he will go back on the offensive and try to do more to define Harris, so we’ll see if Republicans start to run a more coordinated campaign and regain some momentum.

Feehery added that Republicans are “nervous” as they face the reality that it will be a “very tough” and “very close” race as their candidate struggles to stay disciplined on messaging.

The election is no longer the slam dunk that Trump and his party anticipated when they ran against Joe Biden. Harris is up 3.7 percentage points nationally, according to the FT polling average. Still, Trump had a 3.2 percentage point lead over Biden before dropping out, according to FiveThirtyEight.

“If (Trump) continues on this path, he’s going to lose,” said Eric Levine, a New York bankruptcy attorney and a prominent donor to Senate Republicans. “The only way you’re going to get those voters going to Harris. . . is the change of strategy”.

But some party donors and operatives close to Trump are still optimistic. They’re betting the race will swing the former president’s way as Harris faces scrutiny on policy issues like the economy and immigration — especially as the Sept. 10 debate nears.

“We really haven’t had a conversation about the direction of the country. We had a conversation about resetting the Democratic Party. And Harris’ support is nowhere near Biden’s level of support in 2020,” said former Trump adviser-turned-lobbyist Bryan Lanza.

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

• Harris, along with candidate Tim Walz, will participate in her first interview since becoming the Democratic nominee. It airs at 9:00 PM Eastern. (CNN)

• China is struggling to get meetings with members of Trump’s camp. (Free to read)

• Harris will wrap up a two-day campaign through Georgia today as he tries to keep the battleground state in play. (The Washington Post)

• US prosecutors have filed a revised criminal indictment against Trump in the case of interference in the 2020 federal election.

• Trump named former Democrats Robert F Kennedy Jr and Tulsi Gabbard as honorary co-chairs of his presidential transition team.

Behind the scenes

Conservative law has an anti-regulation superstar with a familiar name: Scalia.

Eugene Scalia, the son of former US Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, has been on a successful crusade to thwart the Biden administration’s efforts to rein in big business.

In recent months, his legal arguments have affected climate disclosure rules, regulations for private funds and the Federal Trade Commission’s ban on non-compete agreements, which can make it difficult to switch jobs.

Scalia told the FT’s Stefania Palma and Brooke Masters:

I love the principles and ideas that (this) country was founded on, and that includes a government that respects freedom. When the government steps in, treats people unfairly, and pretends the people never gave it to them, I find it rewarding to say so.

Challenging this kind of government behavior is one way to promote American values.

Trump has said he wants to resume the light regulation that emerged during his first term in the White House. On the Democratic side, it’s anyone’s guess whether Harris will follow in Biden’s footsteps with aggressive policies on financial regulation and competition.

But as Brooke claims, Harris would be “extorted by aggressive industry litigation and hostile judges.” Scalia would certainly fan those flames.

Data point

Gas prices — a critical political issue for the incumbents — are going Harris’ way.

With less than 10 weeks until Election Day, drivers are paying about $3.35 per gallon at the pump, according to the American Automobile Association.

That’s still higher than when Biden took office and the average during Trump’s presidency, but as the FT’s Myles McCormick pointed out, prices are at their lowest level since March and look set to continue falling. (FT Premium subscribers can click here to sign up for our Energy Source newsletter.)

However, the sector itself is likely to become uneasy about Harris’ plans.

US oil and gas companies will want Harris to propose his energy and climate policies amid concerns that he will further limit fossil fuel development.

Why has it remained silent on energy and climate until now?

“It appears that the Harris campaign has concluded that it is safer to avoid antagonizing producers or climate change activists by sidestepping these issues altogether,” Kevin Book, managing director of Clearview Energy Partners, told the FT’s Jamie Smyth .

While Harris needs the support of young voters in the crucial state of Pennsylvania, she doesn’t want to risk alienating her oil and gas producers, who have a powerful lobby.

Points of view

Join us on September 7th in London and online for the annual FT Weekend Festival. And don’t miss US National Editor and Columnist Edward Luce and Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator Gideon Rachman’s session: America and the World. As a US Election Countdown reader, you can take advantage of the special Newslettere24 promo code. Register here.