No endorsement will prevent this electoral shock

VaselineAugust 31, 2024

0 4 minutes read

No endorsement will prevent this electoral shock

Editor’s note: My colleague, Charles Sizemore from Freeport Society, has a track record of making shocking predictions that come true. Last November, he predicted that Joe Biden would not be on the ballot on Election Day. And in May, when most of the market expected a rate cut, he warned it wouldn’t happen. Now, he has a major election shock prediction you don’t want to miss. He explains everything you need to know in a quick presentation. Click here to watch it now.

Today, I want to share an article by Charles that explains how supporting candidates won’t prevent the electoral shock he sees coming. Take it, Charles…

Hello fellow sailors,

Last week, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ended his campaign and officially threw his weight behind Donald Trump.

Tulsi Gabbard, an ex Democratic congresswoman, recently endorsed Trump as well. (Both now serve on Trump’s “transition team” … whatever that means.)

If you don’t remember who Tulsi Gabbard is…don’t feel bad. She had her proverbial 15 minutes of fame four years ago as a presidential candidate and then largely faded into obscurity. I’m not sure what her endorsement accomplished, other than perhaps suggesting to Trump that she would like a comfortable Cabinet post if he wins. It’s another name in his favor, though.

On the other side of the crocodile pit, more than 200 republicans who worked for George W. Bush, Sen. Mitt Romney and the late Sen. John McCain have thrown their hats into Kamala Harris’ camp.

Personally, I don’t care who supports who.

If Curly decides to support Larry over Moe, or Moe over Larry, it’s still a case of boys supporting boys. And let’s be clear, both Trump and Harris have gone out of their way to prove their bona fides as tooge… making for an inevitable electoral shock.

It’s also worth noting that many of Kennedy’s voters were protest voters. They never expected to win…so many were probably indifferent to his actual political views. They simply supported him as a way to thumb their nose at Harris and Trump. With him out of the race, they can vote Libertarian, Green or not at all.

Of course, those who truly believed in Kennedy and supported his political views — especially his advocacy for the environment — might find Trump’s camp a little less friendly.

But in an election that will ultimately be decided by a small handful of swing voters in an even smaller handful of swing states, if even a modest number of RFK voters follow suit and vote for Trump, they would could end up deciding the elections. .

Let’s take a closer look at these numbers…

The way math works

Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are critical this November. The way the math works, neither Trump nor Harris have a realistic path to the presidency without that state. Or at least not as things stand now.

Today, election betting markets have Trump ahead by exactly 1% – 50.5% to 49.5% – in Pennsylvania. The average of the major polls continues to climb between a Harris lead and then a Trump lead in Pennsylvania. Earlier in the week it was a 1% lead for Harris. On Friday, he was actually dead.

But whether we look at the betting markets or the polls, we have a similar story: With 69 days until November 5, the race is away too close to call in the only state that actually matters.

It might sound trite to say that every vote counts. Well, Pennsylvania has 8.7 million registered voters. A margin of 1% means 87,000 voters. So while it’s unlikely that choosing our next president will literally come down to a single vote, we’re still talking about a very small margin here.

And there is still plenty of time for the wheels to fall off an already shaky economy.

As I wrote yesterday, the Federal Reserve is set to cut rates next month, but we should be careful what we wish for. The Fed doesn’t cut interest rates when everything is great. Lowers rates when concerned. And it cuts aggressively only when it is indeed in question.

The labor market has shown no signs of failure yet. But we’re definitely starting to see cracks forming. Just this month, we’ve seen significant layoffs at equally diverse companies CarMax (KMX), General Motors (GM), Mastercard (ME), Cisco Systems (CSCO)and Paramount Global (PARA)among others.

And earlier this year, Dell (della), Intel (INTC)and Tesla (TSLA) laid off 20%, 15% and 10% of the workforce respectively.

So what does all this have to do with the election?

All.

In a thin contest, even a slight shift in sentiment can swing the results and trigger a major electoral shock.

And countless sparks could set off this change…

We are less than two weeks away from the big debate…

And clearly, the Democrats are not done using the legal process to try to defeat Trump…

We live in a gas-soaked pit.

That’s why I researched what it could be the next big electoral shock to hit us. What I’ve discovered…what I’m predicting now…is contrary to what the stock market is preparing for.

So we’ve recorded a video to share the details with you…and give you the tools you need to not only survive, but thrive…despite what lies ahead.

Click here to watch now.

For life, liberty, and the pursuit of wealth,

Charles Sizemore

Chief Investment Strategist, Freeport Society

VaselineAugust 31, 2024

0 4 minutes read

Vaseline

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