NATO defense spending: which countries are meeting their commitments?

Key points:

• 23 out of 32 NATO members meet the 2% defense spending target; Canada, Spain and Italy lag behind.
• Italy is struggling financially, while others are close to or have plans to hit the target.
• Political changes in the West may affect NATO’s future engagements.
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NATO members pledge to spend 2 percent of their GDP on defense, a goal set in 2014. Currently, 23 of 32 members meet or will soon meet that target, driven in part by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Countries such as Canada, Spain and Italy remain below this level due to financial and political challenges. The conversation also underscores the evolving political climate in some Western countries, where increased defense spending may face growing opposition. The future of these commitments remains uncertain, particularly given the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Overview of NATO’s 2% defense spending target

• In 2014, NATO members agreed to spend 2% of GDP on defense by 2024.
• This commitment was made to strengthen collective defence, especially in light of global security challenges.
• Initially, only three countries met this target, but the number has increased significantly since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

The current state of defense spending by NATO members

• Of NATO’s 32 members, 23 have met or are expected to meet the defense spending target of 2 percent of GDP by the end of this year.
• Some countries have crossed the 2% mark, while others are still striving to reach it in the next few years.

Key outliers do not reach the 2% target.

• Canada: Lack of urgency due to geographic distance from conflict zones and lack of political will to increase spending.
• Spain: It faces challenges due to both financial constraints and political considerations.
• Italy: The 2% target is unlikely to be met in the next five to ten years due to financial problems and the potential political cost of cutting social spending.
• Belgium: Close to achieving the target and likely to achieve it within three to five years.

The changing political landscape and its impact on NATO commitments

• NATO’s relevance has been reaffirmed by the conflict in Ukraine, which has led more countries to meet their defense spending commitments.
• However, a shift to right-wing populist politics in several Western countries, including the Netherlands, Italy, and possibly the United States, has made increased defense spending less popular.
• The tension between meeting NATO commitments and managing domestic political challenges creates uncertainty about future spending levels.

The future of NATO and defense spending

• With more countries than ever meeting their NATO commitments, the alliance is re-emphasizing its primary purpose of collective defense.
• The domestic political climate in NATO countries will play a significant role in determining whether these commitments are sustained.
• The duration of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will also influence NATO’s future direction and priorities.

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