Bitcoin hovers around $58.5000 in early September, historically bearish

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Bitcoin has fluctuated around $58,000 amid a generally calm US Labor Day market The top cryptocurrency was trading around $58,600 at the time of writing, about 1% higher in 24 hours. The broader digital asset market rose 0.9%%, according to CoinDesk Indices data, with ETH and SOL gaining about 1.9% and 0.5% respectively. US-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking BTC saw total net outflows of $175 million on Friday, extending a losing streak to four days. Ether ETFs had zero net inflows or outflows despite trading volume of $173 million, data tracked by SoSoValue shows.

Some traders noted that September is generally one of bitcoin’s most bearish monthsbut said an interest rate cut by the Fed could break the trend. “September is a historically negative month for bitcoin as data shows it has an average value depletion rate of 6.56%,” said Innokenty Isers, founder of cryptocurrency exchange Paybis. “Should the Feds cut interest rates in September, it could help bitcoin rewrite its negative history, as interest rate cuts generally lead to an excessive flow of US dollars into the economy – further strengthening bitcoin’s outlook as store of value.”

The electoral bettors on Polymarket are again favoring Republican candidate Donald Trump as Democrat Kamala Harris’ odds fell to 47% over the weekend from earlier par odds. Harris’s appeal has fallen in recent weeks among Polymarket traders, while Trump’s has gradually rebounded by more than 50%. He is back in the lead after nearly two weeks of even odds. Traders placed $99 million in chain bets on Trump winning the election, with more than $95 million placed on Harris. Harris’ chances have fallen amid protests over a proposed tax on unrealized earnings for people worth more than $100 million. Meanwhile, Trump’s chances have increased as he touts an upcoming decentralized finance project that could offer “high returns” to crypto users.

Chart of the day

• The chart shows that bitcoin miners’ earnings fell in August to the lowest level since September 2023.

• This was accompanied by an increase in the difficulty of mining bitcoins and a decrease in the number of BTC mined.

• This highlights the challenge miners face in adapting to the post-halving world.

• Source: Bitbo

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– Jamie Crawley

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