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XAG/USD rises to near $28.50 amid rising Fed rate cut bets

  • The price of silver extends its advantage as recent data increases the chances of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed.
  • CME’s FedWatch tool shows bets for a 50 basis point rate cut rose to 41.0%.
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasizes that the Fed should not maintain a tight policy stance for too long.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) continues to gain ground for the second straight session, trading around $28.40 per troy ounce during European hours on Thursday. Non-yielding assets such as silver could advance further as weak US manufacturing and labor market data fueled bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more aggressively to avoid an economic recession.

July’s US JOLTS job openings were below expectations, signaling a further slowdown in the labor market. In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI showed that factory activity contracted for the fifth month in a row.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets fully anticipate a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. The probability of a 50 bps rate cut rose to 41.0% from 34.0% a week ago.

Traders now await US ISM PMI services and initial jobless claims scheduled for release on Thursday. Attention will turn to Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for more clues on the potential size of a rate cut expected by the Fed this month.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday that the Fed was in a favorable position, but added that it should not maintain a tight policy stance for too long, according to Reuters. FXStreet’s FedTracker, which rates the tone of Fed officials’ speeches on a scale of 0 to 10 using a custom AI model, rated Bostic’s words as neutral with a score of 4.6.

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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