The uptrend is still intact as the price pushes against the range highs

• NZD/USD continues to trade around its long-term highs.
• Despite the recent weakness, the trend is likely still bullish and is therefore likely to widen.

NZD/USD reversed course after breaking out of the top of its consolidation range. It threatens to fall back towards the lows of the range, however, it is too early to say for sure.

Despite the current weakness, the trend remains bullish on the daily chart and with the trend being your friend, the odds still favor a pullback and eventual extension to higher highs. The price also remains above the trendline for the August rally, another sign that the uptrend is intact.

NZD/USD Daily Chart

The Kiwi is likely to hit the next upside target at 0.6409, the December 2023 high. A break above 0.6302 would provide further bullish confirmation. Another target is located at 0.6448, the 0.618 ratio of the range height extrapolated above.

If NZD/USD closes below the trendline – currently around 0.6160 – it could mark a lower reversal. A break below 0.6133 (September 3 low) would form a lower low and provide further confirmation. The next downside target would be the group of moving averages located at 0.6070, followed by the lows of the range in the 0.5850s.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has not yet closed below the red signal line. If it does, it will provide a sell signal, although such a cross would not be enough on its own to signal a change in trend.