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WTI is holding below $70.00 amid demand concerns

  • The price of WTI is holding steady near $69.75 in the first Asian session on Friday.
  • Continued weak demand in China drags the WTI price lower.
  • A delay in OPEC+ supply increases and encouraging weekly US crude stockpiles reports could limit WTI’s downside.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude, is trading around $69.75 on Friday. WTI price drops to fresh 2024 low amid concerns over US and Chinese demand. However, a delay in OPEC+ oil output growth and a build-up in large crude inventories could help limit WTI’s losses.

Concerns about China’s sluggish economy and oil demand are undermining WTI prices as China is the world’s largest crude importer. China’s weaker-than-expected BNS manufacturing PMI released over the weekend and weaker Caixin manufacturing PMI on Wednesday contributed to WTI’s downside.

However, black gold’s downside could be limited due to positive news from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) and an increase in heavy crude stockpiles.

OPEC+ agreed to delay planned production increases for October and November, according to Reuters on Thursday. Libyan production is expected to resume after the resolution of disputes in the country, which have also affected the price of crude oil. However, the OPEC+ decision could support crude oil prices to lower levels. The dollar index also declined amid strength in the Japanese yen and could support crude oil prices at lower levels,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ended August 30 fell by 6.873 million barrels, compared to a decrease of 0.846 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus expected inventories to fall by just 0.9 million barrels.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, pushing oil prices higher. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices lower. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries when they meet twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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