Kamala Harris will win in 2024, says election forecaster

Lichtman, whose “Keys to the White House” prediction model consists of 13 true or false questions, said in the interview that eight keys went in Harris’s favor.

Trump, Lichtman said, had three keys going for him — one, Harris is not an incumbent; Second, Harris is not, in his view, a “once-in-a-generation, broadly inspired candidate”; and three, the Democratic Party lost control of the House during the 2022 midterm elections.

But it was outnumbered by eight other keys.

Besides benefiting from positive short-term and long-term economic conditions as well as legislative achievements under President Joe Biden’s administration, Harris’ candidacy has not been dogged by any ongoing scandal or social unrest, Lichtman said.

In addition, Harris did not have to go through a primary contest to succeed Biden as the nominee, he added. Lichtman said it helped that he was going up against Trump, who “only appeals to a narrow base.”

Harris, he said, has had no third-party challenger since Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign last month.

The last two keys — on foreign policy failures and successes — wouldn’t matter as much because Trump would still only have five keys even if he were against Harris, Lichtman said.

Lichtman’s assessment marks a slight shift from his last prediction in July, when he told The Wall Street Journal that the Democratic Party should stick with Biden if it wants to keep the White House.

“Biden running ticks two keys right. Biden is stepping aside, they’re obviously losing office, and it’s not at all clear that there won’t be a big party fight,” he said at the time.

Although Biden ultimately dropped out, Harris managed to avoid a primary contest. In addition to securing Biden’s endorsement, Harris was able to rally her party around her in short order.

To be sure, Lichtman’s predictions weren’t always on the money. He got the 2000 election wrong when he predicted a victory for Al Gore over the eventual nominee, George W. Bush.

This was Lichtman’s only lopsided election result since he began running in the 1984 elections.

Representatives for the Harris campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment sent outside regular business hours.