Tropical Storm Francine heads toward Louisiana as track changes

Tropical Storm Francine is set to become a hurricane on Tuesday as it heads toward Louisiana after moving east, forcing some oil drillers to halt production, but following a path likely to avoid key natural gas export facilities.

On its current path, Francine will pass crowded liquefied natural gas facilities around the Texas-Louisiana border, including Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass terminal, as it makes landfall Wednesday as a hurricane. With maximum sustained winds of 65 miles (105 kilometers) per hour, the storm is currently about 395 miles south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, the National Hurricane Center said in a warning at 7 a.m. Houston time.

Overall, Francine will likely cause $5 billion in damage and losses if it reaches Category 2 strength, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler at Enki Research. There is a chance it will weaken as it makes landfall, which would reduce losses to about $1 billion. If Francine ignites, it will be the third hurricane to hit the continental US this year.

“Francine is likely to become a hurricane today with significant strengthening expected before reaching the coast,” Jack Beven, a senior hurricane specialist at the center, wrote in his forecast. Francine’s winds are expected to exceed 100 mph, making it a Category 2 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass to Grand Isle, Louisiana. Storm warnings are in effect from High Island, Texas, near Houston, to the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp. and Shell Plc are among the companies taking measures such as evacuating workers from vulnerable facilities, suspending drilling activities and closing some wells. Gas supplies to US LNG export plants fell 3.2% on Tuesday from a day earlier.

Overnight, Francine’s winds remained stable, which “appears to limit the risk of upward intensity,” said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC. It still needs to cross some warm water to provide fuel for strengthening, but Francine also faces windy conditions that could damage the storm’s structure and limit its strength.

Meanwhile, the US Coast Guard declared Port Condition Yankee at Houston, Galveston and other key Texas ports, a warning that severe weather is expected within 24 hours.

One advantage to Francine as it moves ashore is that it will bring much-needed water to the dry Mississippi River, where low water levels threaten to destroy shipments of everything from corn to gasoline.

The Hurricane Center is tracking two other disturbances in the central Atlantic Ocean with the potential to become tropical storms. Both are hundreds of miles or more from populated areas.

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Catastrophe Natural disasters Hurricane Louisiana