15-foot waves possible as Francine hits Gulf Coast, 125,000 homes at risk

A forecast calls for Francine to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane in the next 24 hours before hitting the Louisiana coast with a storm surge of up to 15 feet, while a disaster modeler says the surge could cause flooding putting more than 125,000 properties at risk.

Francine is expected to produce maximum sustained winds of 96 to 110 miles per hour, according to an AccuWeather forecast. Forecasters are forecasting winds between 100 and 120 mph when Francine makes landfall on Wednesday. Maximum wind speeds could reach 130 mph.

Flash flooding is likely with 8 to 12 inches of rainfall expected. Tornadoes embedded in rainbands are possible east of the storm’s track, according to AccuWeather.

The AccuWeather forecast predicts a more intense hurricane than other forecasts.

“While the National Hurricane Center and other sources downgraded their wind intensity forecast to a Category 1 hurricane, AccuWeather forecasters maintained their forecast for Francine to reach Category 2 intensity before landfall,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “This is because the storm will spend time in an environment of very warm water, high ocean heat content, and low wind shear through Wednesday morning.”

AccuWeather forecasters say Francine could produce an extensive area of ​​6 to 10 feet of storm surge along much of coastal Louisiana and parts of western Mississippi.

They expect 4 to 8 inches of rainfall over much of Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, western Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee. An area of ​​8 to 12 inches of rainfall is forecast in a pocket of south and central Louisiana.

Property data provider and modeler CoreLogic reported that more than 125,000 properties are at risk of flooding from storm surge, while nearly 67,000 residential properties with a combined rebuilding cost of $15.9 billion are at risk of flooding if Francine makes landfall as a Category 1 Hurricane and maintains its current forecast track.

The largest concentration of residential properties at risk for storm surge is in Louisiana’s Houma-Thibodaux metropolitan area in the eastern part of the state. If the current storm track holds, then the Houma-Thibodaux area will be to the east of the storm’s center, where the worst storm surge typically occurs, according to CoreLogic.