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XAG/USD holds above $28.50 ahead of ECB decision, US data

  • The price of silver holds on to gains ahead of the ECB’s interest rate decision scheduled for Thursday.
  • The ECB is widely expected to cut rates to 4.0% by implementing a 25 basis point cut.
  • August US consumer price index data raised the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) rose for a fourth straight day, trading around $28.74 during Asian hours on Thursday. Non-yielding assets such as silver are getting support as traders anticipate the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates to 4.0% by implementing a 25 basis point rate cut at its next policy meeting later in the day .

Easing monetary policies by central banks globally benefits Silver by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing assets. August US consumer price index (CPI) data showed headline inflation fell to a three-year low, raising expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September. Investors will shift focus to the US producer price index and initial jobless claims data scheduled for Thursday for additional information.

In addition, no growth in the UK economy strengthens expectations of a possible quarter-point interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in November. Some traders are also setting the possibility of a further rate cut in December.

US CPI fell to 2.5% annually in August, down from the previous reading of 2.9% and below expectations of 2.6%. Headline CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, was flat at 3.2% on the year, while rising at 0.3% on the month, up from 0.2% previously.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets fully anticipate a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. The probability of a 50 bps rate cut fell sharply to 15.0%, down from 44.0% a week ago.

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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