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USD/JPY appreciates towards 143.00 as traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates.

  • USD/JPY is gaining ground as the chances of a smaller rate cut by the Fed in September increase.
  • BoJ board member Naoki Tamura said there was no predetermined plan on the pace of future rate hikes.
  • The CME FedWatch tool suggests the odds of a 50 bps rate cut by the Fed have fallen to 15.0%.

USD/JPY snaps its two-day losing streak, trading around 142.90 during European hours on Thursday. The Japanese yen (JPY) remains weak following remarks from Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Naoki Tamura.

BoJ board member Tamura said “there is no preconceived idea of ​​the pace of further rate hikes.” Unlike the US and Europe, rate hikes in Japan are expected to occur more gradually. Exactly when short-term rates in Japan might reach 1% will depend on economic and price conditions at that time.

Read the full article: BoJ’s Tamura has no preconceived idea about pace of further rate hikes

The upside in USD/JPY could be attributed to rising expectations of a smaller interest rate cut by the Fed in September. US consumer price index (CPI) data for August showed that headline inflation fell to a three-year low. This development has increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its easing cycle with a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September.

The US consumer price index fell to 2.5% from a year earlier in August, from the previous reading of 2.9%. The index fell below the expected value of 2.6%. Meanwhile, headline CPI was 0.2% on the month. Core CPI excluding food and energy, was unchanged at 3.2% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, the core CPI rose to 0.3% from the previous reading of 0.2%.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets fully anticipate a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. The probability of a 50 bps rate cut fell sharply to 15.0%, down from 44.0% a week ago.

Frequently Asked Questions about the Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the most traded currencies in the world. Its value is largely determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by Bank of Japan policy, the difference between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the yen. The BoJ has intervened directly in currency markets on occasion, generally to depress the yen, although it refrains from doing so because of the political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ’s current ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the yen to depreciate against its major peers. This process has been exacerbated more recently by a widening policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks, which have opted to raise interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.

The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to increased policy divergence with other central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds, which favors the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

The Japanese yen is often seen as a safe investment. This means that during periods of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money into the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Troubled times are likely to strengthen the value of the yen against other currencies considered riskier to invest in.

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