Uzbekistan capitalizes on Russia’s need for allies and secures gas cuts

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s two-day visit to Uzbekistan highlights the limits of the Kremlin’s geopolitical leverage these days. Mishustin arrived with high hopes of drawing Uzbekistan closer to Russia’s orbit, but left with little substance.

Uzbekistan and other Central Asian states went a fine line since Russia launched its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, seeking to remain on the sidelines of the conflict without reeling Kremlin and provoking Russian leader Vladimir Putin to take some kind of punitive action. Helping to keep Moscow happy is the fact that the Central Asian states have acted as a back door trade channel, tacitly helping Russian leaders it softens the impact of Western sanctions and the preservation of Russian war effort walking

Mishustin arrived in Uzbekistan on September 9 with the stated aim of securing Tashkent’s commitment to become a full member of the Moscow-dominated Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). “Uzbekistan’s participation in Eurasian integration can provide additional advantages for business. First of all, thanks to the opening of new sales markets, the creation of conditions for fair competition,” TASS news agency quoted Mishustin as saying at a September 9 meeting of the Russian-Uzbek joint government commission.

And unnamed experts quote by the Russia-based URA news agency said that the main reason Moscow wants Uzbekistan to join the EAEU boils down to population numbers: Russia is facing a demographic disaster exacerbated by already high and ever-growing losses in during the war. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan has a young and rapidly growing population. Russia needs more bodies to ensure a stable economic future.

“Russia is interested in Uzbekistan’s accession to the EAEU because it is a country with a population of 35 million inhabitants and, according to forecasts, by 2035 it will already have more than 40 million inhabitants,” said the URA expert, quoted by URA . “The total population of the (Eurasian economic) union would exceed 200 million people (if Uzbekistan became a member). For Russia, this is an opportunity to strengthen the combined weight of that part of the multipolar world that is being built around our country as a regional leader.”

At the joint commission meeting, Mishustin also expressed hope that the two countries could develop an enterprise to produce drones for “civilian” use. “We are exploring the possibilities of organizing high-tech production of polymers, localization of production of civil unmanned aircraft systems and their components,” TASS quoted Mishustin as saying.

The suggestion raised eyebrows among some local observers, given that an entity in Kazakhstan was already under control US sanctions for supplying Russia with dual-use components, including parts for drones used against Ukrainian forces.

Uzbek officials appeared to be listening politely to Russian proposals, but gave no indication that they would accede to Moscow’s wishes. A statesmenT issued by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s office following a September 10 meeting with the Russian prime minister offered the usual platitudes about the importance of the bilateral “strategic partnership” without mentioning the EAEU or specific joint projects. The president’s most specific statement was an acknowledgment that “there was an exchange of views on matters of mutual interest.”

The result of the previous day’s joint committee was equally modest. There was much talk about boosting trade and investment and pursuing joint projects agreed during Putin’s visit to Uzbekistan last May. But the talks yielded few results.

A statement from the Uzbek government noted that three At the end of the commission meeting, relatively minor agreements were signed, including one on speeding up the rail transport of agricultural products and another on the standardized labeling of medicines. The third point was a protocol on the training of medical personnel.

Perhaps the most significant development resulting from the visit was the signing of a protocol regarding implementation an agreement signed back in May, whereby Russia committed to building up to six low-power nuclear reactors to generate electricity in Uzbekistan. The protocol “will allow us to start direct work on the site in the near future,” said a report published by new outlet Spot.uz, citing Otabek Amanov, a top Uzbek official overseeing the project. Uzbek officials say they hope the first reactor will be operational within five years.

During the commission meeting, Mishustin expressed his satisfaction with the bilateral cooperation in the field of energy. “Our energy partnership is progressing successfully. Including the supply of natural gas, oil and oil products from Russia to Uzbekistan,” Mishustin said he stated.

Uzbek officials have no reason to argue in this regard. Uzbekistan buys Russian natural gas from a bargain-basement rate of USD 160 per thousand cubic meters (tcm), according to local media reports. By comparison, Russian energy giant Gazprom sold gas to China at an estimate rate of just over $286/tcm in 2023. The low purchase price of Russian gas helps explain why Uzbekistan, itself rich in gas reserves, has turned into a net importer of blue fuel. Low-priced Russian products allow Uzbek leaders to offer highly subsidized gas rates to domestic customers.

Of Eurasianet.org

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