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XAG/USD rises to $30.00 as the Fed could deliver a jumbo rate cut

  • The price of silver is rising as recent data from the US strengthened the likelihood of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed.
  • The CME FedWatch tool shows the likelihood of a rate cut rising 50 basis points to 41.0% from 14.0% a day ago.
  • Markets are assessing the demand outlook in China, taking into account the growth of renewable energy, which is crucial for silver demand.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) continues its winning streak that began on September 9, trading around $29.90 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Friday. Non-yielding assets such as Silver received support after economic data from the United States (US) strengthened the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. Lower interest rates make non-performing assets more attractive for investment returns.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets fully anticipate a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. The probability of a 50 bps rate cut rose sharply to 41.0% from 14.0% a day ago.

The U.S. producer price index (PPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month in August, beating forecasts for a 0.1% rise and the previous 0.0%. Meanwhile, the core PPI accelerated to 0.3% on the month, versus the expected 0.2% increase and the 0.2% contraction in July. However, initial US jobless claims rose slightly in the week ended September 6, rising to an expected 230,000 from the previous reading of 228,000.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main refinancing operations rate to 4.0% by implementing a 25 basis point rate cut. In addition, UK GDP did not grow in July after stagnating in June, which reinforces expectations of a possible quarter-point interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in November. Some traders are also setting the possibility of a further rate cut in December.

Markets are assessing the outlook for demand in China, the world’s largest consumer, following mixed economic signals, while also taking into account growth in the renewable energy sector, where silver plays a key role in solar panel production.

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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