Washington reacts to the Russian counteroffensive at Kursk

More developments this week on the Ukraine-Russia war front that threaten to cross a fairly significant “red line” in what has been a fairly slow and steady crossing of red lines since Putin launched his invasion in Ukraine in March 2022.

The broader development is that the Biden Administration appears poised to remove restrictions on weapons that Ukraine can use in attacks on Russian territory. Specifically, the administration could allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to target Russia — a move Putin said Thursday would amount to war with NATO.

Washington may be reacting to what it may see as growing Russian weakness on the battlefield after a lack of direct response to Ukraine’s endless incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, where it remains, holding territory. Rather than launch an immediate counteroffensive at Kursk, Russia has chosen to step up its campaign of airstrikes and push into the Donbas as it seeks to sever a key element of Ukraine’s military supply chain.

The second development is that Russia has finally launched a counter-offensive in Kursk, the Russian territory where Ukraine launched an incursion weeks ago, without a decisive response from Moscow. Ukrainian officials also noted the build-up of Russian forces on the Ukraine-Belarus border, flanking Kursk.

Zelensky insists the Russian counter-offensive is proceeding in line with his strategy and has claimed the troop build-up on the border with Belarus is under control. The Russians are advancing into Ukraine in the Kursk region, and Moscow says it has regained control of 10 settlements. The advance seems to be quite slow and in areas that Ukraine was not trying to hold. Ukrainian media have also reported that Russian forces fear a Ukrainian attack on another region – Bryansk – and are deploying there as well. Meanwhile, Ukraine launched a drone attack on Moscow, killing one person, destroying residential property and temporarily halting flights. Again, such an attack is strictly intended to make it appear that Putin cannot even protect the capital. Although a small attack that means nothing militarily, it could have a bigger impact on public opinion than the Kursk invasion.

Zelensky needed the Kursk invasion, and the timing was no accident: public opinion was waning, and as daring as the Kursk invasion was, one of the goals was PR. After all, it has been going on for over two years, and Kiev is aware that its civilian population is growing weary of the conflict. Kursk helps amid a controversial cabinet reshuffle in Kiev that has drawn significant criticism from the opposition.