close
close
migores1

WTI slips below $68.00 on renewed demand fears after gloomy Chinese macro data

  • WTI starts the new week on a weaker note in reaction to gloomy Chinese macro data.
  • Fed-inspired USD selling bias provides support and helps limit losses for the commodity.
  • The mixed fundamental background deserves attention before placing new directional bets.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices attracted some sellers during the Asian session on Monday and are currently trading just below the $68.00 mark, down more than 0.60% on the day.

Concerns about slowing fuel demand in the world’s biggest oil importer resurfaced after a string of weak data from China over the weekend, which in turn is seen as a key factor influencing the black liquid. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics reported on Saturday that China’s retail sales rose 2.1 percent in August from a year earlier, down from 2.7 percent growth the previous month and missing expectations. In addition, industrial production growth slowed from 5.1% in July to 4.5% in the reported month. Moreover, fixed asset investment rose 3.4% for the January-August period, slower than market forecasts, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a six-month high.

This comes on top of a downward revision to demand growth forecasts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) and prompts fresh selling around crude oil prices. That said, the prevailing selling trend in the US dollar (USD), driven by expectations of an excessive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), is supporting commodities and helping to limit downside. Therefore, it will be prudent to wait for some further selling before confirming that the recent rally from the May 2023 low has been exhausted and positioning for a resumption of the previous downtrend seen in the last two months or so.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, leading to higher oil prices. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices lower. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries when they meet twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Related Articles

Back to top button