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WTI extends rally above $70.00 amid Hurricane Francine impact

  • WTI holds positive ground near $70.35 in Tuesday’s Asian session.
  • Hurricane Francine’s impact on oil production and firmer Fed rate cut bets are supporting WTI prices.
  • Concerns about China’s demand could limit WTI’s rally in the near term.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.35 on Tuesday. WTI price gains momentum as Hurricane Francine disrupts production in the US Gulf of Mexico.

The US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) reported Monday that Hurricane Francine had disrupted about 12 percent of crude oil production and 16 percent of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. This, in turn, pushes the price of WTI to two-week highs.

Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. According to CME FedWatch, Fed funds futures show investors are increasingly betting that the US Fed will cut by 50 basis points (bps) instead of 25 bps. Lower interest rates will reduce the cost of borrowing, which generally increases demand for oil.

On the other hand, lingering concerns about Chinese demand could put some selling pressure on the black gold, as China is the world’s largest oil importer. Data released over the weekend showed that growth in Chinese industrial production slowed to a five-month low in August, while retail sales and new home prices deteriorated further.

IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong noted that recent weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data dampened market sentiment, with the prospect of prolonged low growth in the world’s second largest economy reinforcing doubts about oil demand.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, leading to higher oil prices. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices lower. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries when they meet twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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