Billionaire Jeff Bezos is taking part in Rocket Lab and a Chinese startup to build the next SpaceX

In December 2015, Elon Musk’s SpaceX did something no other organization on Earth — either government or corporation — had ever managed to do before: launch a rocket into orbit and then land safely on solid ground . Nearly a decade later, no other entity has yet managed to duplicate that feat, which is part of the reason it dominates the space launch market today and part of the reason SpaceX now has a market cap of over 210 billion of dollars.

But at least three companies aim to try to repeat that feat soon. The first to succeed could become the next SpaceX.

Image source: Getty Images.

The blue origin

Blue Origin and SpaceX have been feuding since November 2015, when Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos stole Musk’s thunder by landing his New Shepard rocket back on Earth before Musk could land a Falcon 9.

Of course, New Shepard is a suborbital rocket, and Musk was busy trying to get his rockets down for controlled landings on boats, while Bezos was going the easy way with land landings. Even so, Bezos found a way to get Musk’s goat, and the feud between the two space billionaires has been ongoing ever since.

Next month, Bezos will try to upset Musk once again when Blue Origin launches its New Glenn rocket on its maiden flight. New Glenn will carry a Blue Origin space tug (one of the few types of spacecraft SpaceX has not yet attempted to build) called the Blue Ring into orbit. It will also attempt to land the first stage on a ship at sea, duplicating a feat that only SpaceX has accomplished so far.

If Bezos succeeds, it will mean Blue Origin has a more powerful reusable rocket than the Falcon 9. While SpaceX says the Falcon 9 can carry a 22-ton payload into low Earth orbit, Blue Origin says the payload capacity New Glenn’s is 45 tons.

The rocket lab

After spending the last three years developing the successor to its small publicly traded Electron rocket Rocket Lab USA (RKLB -1.21%) aims to debut the reusable Neutron rocket in a mid-2025 launch.

The Neutron has an innovative design where the rocket’s reusable first stage includes a consumable second stage. After burning the fuel, the first stage releases the second stage and payload, then closes back in preparation for its own controlled landing (in what some call a “Hungry Hippo” design).

As such, Neutron will represent a quantum leap in Rocket Lab’s capabilities. While the payload capacity of its Electron rocket maxes out at 300 kilograms, the Neutron will be able to launch payloads of up to 13 metric tons. This isn’t quite in the same class as the Falcon 9 or New Glenn, but it’s large enough to accommodate most standard satellites and should also allow Rocket Lab to deploy entire constellations of small satellites for its customers in a single release.

Rocket Lab also will aim to land its new rocket on a barge at sea.

iSpace

And now for the wild card. In China, rocket technology start-up iSpace (not to be confused with Japan’s ispace — although I guarantee there will be confusion) announced last week that it had secured $99 million in new funding to further develop its own reusable rocket, the Hyperbola-3.

Smaller than the other two contenders, Hyperbola-3 is expected to have the ability to raise an 8.5-ton payload into low Earth orbit. Like the Falcon 9, New Glenn and Neutron, it will favor sea landings to reduce the amount of fuel carried, which in turn will allow it to carry close to its maximum payload.

iSpace aims to make the first Hyperbola-3 launch in December 2025, making it the last of these would-be SpaceX imitators to try. It is also arguably the company with the worst prospects for success. Over seven launches to date of its expendable Hyperbola-1 rocket, Payload Research notes that iSpace has recorded just four successes.

That’s a .571 batting average — great for baseball, but significantly worse than Blue Origin’s record with New Shepard or Rocket Lab’s Electron.

What it all means for investors

But yes, I still say “there’s a chance” — not just for iSpace, but for all three of these space companies to succeed. And if even one of them does, it will change the dynamics of competition in the space industry.

After all, reusability of rockets has been a key reason SpaceX has been able to lower the cost of orbital launches, which has forced competitors like United Launch Alliance and Arianespace to lower their prices as well. Once Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, or iSpace reach this technological milestone, SpaceX may feel compelled to lower prices further to compete.

In addition, it will add enormous pressure on the United Launch Alliance, a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martinand on parent Arianespace Airbusto finally design and build their own reusable rockets.

In a competition between companies that throw away their rockets after each use and companies that save money by reusing them, it’s pretty clear which one will be able to offer the best prices to their space customers. And those who can’t offer the best prices are likely destined for a turbulent future — along with their investors.