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Increases over 1% above 142.00

  • USD/JPY climbs over 180 pips, testing key resistance at 142.35 (Tenkan-Sen).
  • A break above 143.04 could target resistance at 143.15 (Senkou Span A) and 144.48 (Kijun-Sen).
  • A break below 142.00 could see the pair resume the downtrend, with support at 139.58 (YTD low) and 139.00.

USD/JPY surged at the end of the North American session to trade at 142.44, up more than 1% after recovering from a daily low of 140.32. Strong US data added to investor uncertainty over the size of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut as they eyed Wednesday’s monetary policy decision. Therefore, traders shorting the US dollar have reduced their positions, as seen in the price action in the USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical Insights

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is still downtrending despite rallying over 180 pips to test the Tenkan-Sen at 142.35. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish, albeit aimed higher, but has turned flat as Wednesday’s Asian session looms.

If USD/JPY rises above the daily high of 143.04 from September 12, this could pave the way for an advance, exposing key resistance levels: Senkou Span A at 143.15, followed by Kijun-Sen at 144.48.

However, if USD/JPY breaks below 142.00, it will compound a downtrend resumption. The next support would be the year-to-date (YTD) low of 139.58 followed by the 139.00 threshold.

USD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

Frequently Asked Questions about the Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the most traded currencies in the world. Its value is largely determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by Bank of Japan policy, the difference between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the yen. The BoJ has intervened directly in currency markets on occasion, generally to depress the yen, although it refrains from doing so because of the political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ’s current ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the yen to depreciate against its major peers. This process has been exacerbated more recently by a widening policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks, which have opted to raise interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.

The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to increased policy divergence with other central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds, which favors the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

The Japanese yen is often seen as a safe investment. This means that during periods of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money into the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Troubled times are likely to strengthen the value of the yen against other currencies considered riskier to invest in.

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