Why could DUSK rise 17%?

• Twilight price retests and finds support around the 50% retracement level at $0.195, with a rally ahead.
• On-chain data paints a bullish picture as exchange flow balance and supply on DUSK exchanges decrease.
• A daily candle close below $0.190 would invalidate the bullish thesis.

Dusk (DUSK), a Tier 1 blockchain protocol that brings classic finance and real-world assets (RWA) to the chain, recovers initial weekly losses and recovers the $0.210 level, up 5% on Wednesday. DUSK could extend gains by 17% after the coin price recently retested and found support around a key level. Additionally, chain data such as Exchange Flow Balance and Supply on Exchanges point to a rally ahead.

Dusk price shows the potential for a rally

Twilight price was under selling pressure earlier in the week, but managed to find support at its roughly 50% price retracement level (pulled from an early August low to an early September high) at 0.195 USD. This level roughly coincides with the daily support level of $0.190, making it an important support area. At the time of writing on Wednesday, it is trading 5% higher on the day to just over $0.212.

If the $0.190 level continues to hold as support, DUSK could rise 17% from its current trading level to retest the daily resistance level at $0.248.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is trading around its neutral level of 50, and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is also hovering around the neutral level of zero. These indicators indicate that neither the bulls nor the bears are in control of the momentum. For the bullish momentum to persist, both indicators need to hold and trade above their neutral levels, suggesting a rebound ahead.

DUSK/USDT Daily Chart

Analysis of on-chain data suggests a bullish outlook for Dusk’s price. According to IntoTheBlock’s In/Out of the Money Map (IOMAP) data, approximately 74 addresses have purchased 53.23 million DUSK tokens at an average price of $0.190. These addresses bought the Level 1 blockchain-based tokens between $0.188 and $0.194, suggesting a critical support area.

The $0.190 support level from a technical analysis perspective aligns with the IOMAP findings, marking this area as a crucial reversal point to watch.

DUSK IOMAP chart

Santiments’ “Schimb Flow Balance” value also aligns with Dusk’s bullish technical outlook. This metric shows the net transfer of tokens to and from the exchange. A positive spike suggests that more tokens have entered than exited, indicating investor pressure to sell. A negative spike, on the other hand, suggests that more tokens have left the market than arrived, suggesting that investors are less likely to sell.

In Dusk’s case, Exchange Flow Balance fell from 41,231 this month to -455,170 on Tuesday. This negative drop suggests that investors are pulling more tokens from exchanges and are less likely to sell them. Led to a 1% drop in the stock market offering, suggesting investor confidence in the Dusk network.

Exchange flow balance and supply of DUSK on the exchange chart

Despite the bullish view provided by technical analysis and on-chain metrics, if Dusk’s daily candlestick closes below $0.190, the bullish thesis will be invalidated by the formation of a lower low on the daily time frame. This outcome would lead to a 12% drop in Dusk’s price, retesting its August 16 low of $0.166.