Explainer-What is at stake in the parliamentary elections in Austria? By Reuters

VIENNA (Reuters) – Austrians elect a new parliament on September 29 in a vote that could put the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) in pole position to form a government for the first time in post-war history.

Since the FPO is highly unlikely to get an absolute majority, it would have to find a coalition partner to govern.

WHAT ARE AUSTRIA’S VOTERS MOST CONCERNED? Higher living costs and stricter immigration rules have been the main problems, security has slipped since police last month foiled a plot to attack a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna in which three of the suspects are teenage sons of immigrant families.

Widespread flooding in August and September pushed climate change up the agenda.

Polling at 27-29%, the Islam-critical FPO has been leading for months by around three points over the conservative ruling Austrian People’s Party (OVP) and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPO) in third place by about 21%.

Pursuing an “Austria first” agenda, the FPO advocates so-called “remigration” or the return of people to the countries of their original family origin – especially for those who break the law. The SPO is more liberal, but still wants a redistribution of asylum seekers that would make it less difficult for Austria.

Although it has eased, headline inflation in Austria has stuck for nearly two years above the European Union average, while growth has been below average. Austria is heavily dependent on Russian gas and is under increasing pressure to break the habit.

WHAT HAPPENS IF FPO WINS?

The head of the FPO, Herbert Kickl, is a staunch critic of the European Union, and this year formed an alliance with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a madman from Brussels who also wants to limit immigration.

Critics say Kickl draws on Nazi-era tropes, a charge it denies. But his rhetorical prowess helped position him as an anti-establishment candidate – even though he was home secretary as recently as 2019.

Seen by most of the political elite as too close to Russia, Kickl opposes sending aid to Ukraine. He is anathema to other party leaders, who have vowed not to work under him.

But if he were willing to let someone else be prime minister, as Dutch nationalist Geert Wilders did earlier this year, he could open the door to the first FPO-led government in the post-war era, moving Austria to the right. However, he has shown no desire to do so.

WHAT COALITIONS CAN BE FORMED?

The FPO’s only viable coalition partner appears to be the OVP, which beat predictions to finish narrowly behind the FPO in June’s European elections.

An OVP victory would prevent Kickl’s bid to reclaim the chancellery, making an OVP-FPO alliance more likely.

Current polls suggest that the OVP will emerge as a leader, able to choose between a coalition with the FPO or Austria’s first tripartite alliance – with the SPO and either the liberal NEOS or the Greens, currently OVP’s junior partners.

Neighboring Germany embarked on its first tripartite coalition in 2021 and proved unwieldy and unpopular, boosting support for the extremes. A repeat in Austria, which has had a string of short governments, could finally boost the FPO.

Whoever wins seems likely to push for stricter immigration rules. An FPO-OVP combination would open the door to tax cuts, while a more centrist one could accelerate the transition away from Russian gas.

THE VOTING AND WHAT’S NEXT

Polling stations open from 6:45 am (0445 GMT) and close at 5 pm (1500 GMT). Projections, usually very reliable, are published shortly after. The result is usually clear at night, when all the ballots except postal ballots are counted. Counting of postal ballots may take a few more days.

President Alexander Van der Bellen, the former leader of the Greens, will ask one party to form a government. Usually the top finisher gets the call, but Van der Bellen expressed reservations about the FPO and Kickl in particular.

It generally takes about two months to reach a detailed coalition agreement. Its contents and the new government are then announced.