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WTI advances to $71.00, more than two-week high amid broad USD weakness

  • WTI hits a more than two-week high on Wednesday amid fresh USD selling.
  • The Fed’s outsized rate cut, along with a risk-on positive tone, is undermining the safe-haven dollar.
  • Concerns about slowing global fuel demand could limit any further gains in crude oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude oil prices are regaining positive traction after Wednesday’s modest pullback and are building on the recent bounce back from the $64.75 area or May 2023 low hit last week. Buying interest remains unabated in the first half of the European session and lifts the commodity to a more than two-week high, closer to the $71.00 mark.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to kick off its policy easing cycle by cutting borrowing costs by 50 basis points on Wednesday fueled optimism about rising economic activity and energy demand. This, along with the emergence of fresh US dollar (USD) sales, are proving to be key factors pushing crude oil prices higher. In addition, the risk of further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, especially after walkie-talkies used by the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah exploded on Wednesday, acting as a tailwind for the cargo.

Meanwhile, government data on Wednesday showed a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles, although it was offset by a build-up in distillates and gasoline stocks. In addition, lingering concerns about weak global demand could limit any further appreciation in crude oil prices. In fact, both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut their forecasts for demand growth earlier this month amid lingering concerns about a slowdown in China.

Concerns resurfaced after the release of weak macro data from China over the weekend, which indicated signs of weakness in the world’s largest economy and top oil importer. This in turn calls for some caution for aggressive traders on the upside and before positioning for an extension of the upward trajectory seen over the past week or so. Traders are now eagerly awaiting US macro data – initial weekly jobless claims, the Philly Fed manufacturing index and data on existing home sales – to take advantage of near-term opportunities.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, leading to higher oil prices. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices down. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries when they meet twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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