The Mark Robinson scandal could cost Trump North Carolina and the election

Despite Robinson’s history of polarizing comments, he easily won the GOP gubernatorial primary in March. But in a bombshell CNN story published last week, the network reported that Robinson made a series of racist, anti-Semitic and sexually explicit comments on a pornographic website more than a decade ago – before he was in public office.

On the Nude Africa website, Robinson describes himself like a “black Nazi!” and claims that “slavery is not evil,” among other remarks.

Robinson denied the allegation and vowed to stay in the race. But even before the report was released, he was trailing in the polls against his Democratic opponent, state Attorney General Josh Stein. Meanwhile, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race in North Carolina.

Here’s a look at how the Robinson scandal could not only jeopardize Trump’s ability to win the Tar Heel State, but also kill the former president’s chances of winning the general election.

The swing-state dilemma

Robinson rose to prominence in GOP circles after her forceful defense of gun rights during a 2018 address to the Greensboro City Council went viral. In his speech, he condemned what he said were attempts to enforce gun control, arguing that criminals would simply ignore the laws.

The speech helped pave the way for Robinson’s 2020 victory in a lieutenant governor race, which he won by three percentage points even though Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper was re-elected to a second term.

That year, Trump also won North Carolina — albeit narrowly — against incumbent Joe Biden. Anchored by the support of rural conservatives, the then-president cruised to a one-point victory in what has become one of the nation’s key swing states.

Robinson’s brand of politics is rooted in a larger confrontation Republican style, though. His biggest advantage is with the social conservatives, not the kind of college-educated suburban voters who have drifted away from the GOP in the Trump era.

It is encapsulated in previous polls. A New York Times/Siena College poll released in August showed Stein leading Robinson 49 percent to 39 percent among likely voters. A Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this month showed Stein up 10 points (51% to 41%) among likely voters. And a recent Emerson College poll showed Stein ahead of Robinson by eight points (48 percent to 40 percent) among likely voters.

Robinson’s campaign has stumbled in the state for some time — and it’s unclear what ramifications the latest allegations will have for his candidacy. But state Treasurer Dale Folwell, who lost to Robinson in this year’s gubernatorial primary, told the News & Observer last week that taxpayers and donors were “fieeed” by the lieutenant governor.

Such a remark from a fellow state GOP official usually does not bode well for party unity. And Trump is now caught in that web.

A story about “reverse elbows”

When popular candidates run at the top of the ticket—especially in presidential, gubernatorial, or Senate races—they often boost down-vote candidates.

A strong candidate leading the party on the ballot can have an immeasurable impact on turnout and enthusiasm for candidates who need help getting across the finish line.

In 2020, Robinson outperformed Trump in North Carolina, but the former president also drew voters who no doubt boosted the lieutenant governor in areas where he wasn’t as well known.

Now, Robinson’s latest scandal threatens to put Trump in control of a state Harris has targeted since her campaign began in July. The vice president reversed the swing the party faced when Biden was nominated, and recent polls in North Carolina showed her tied with Trump or slightly ahead.

Harris’ competitiveness in the state is driven by his advantages among women, young voters, urban and college-educated suburban voters. And he’s running a decidedly pro-choice campaign, unlike Robinson — an anti-abortion champion who also revealed last month that his wife had an abortion 30 years ago.

Pessimism about Robinson’s campaign could drag down Trump’s numbers in the state, creating a “reverse coattail” effect — especially if Robinson loses by a sizable margin.

The GOP faces a Harris campaign that is flush with cash and has 26 field offices and more than 200 paid staffers in North Carolina. The Harris campaign also ran an ad trying to tie Robinson to Trump, weaving in old footage of the former president saying the lieutenant governor was “better than Martin Luther King.”

Democrats believe Harris’ presence on the ballot could help them in other races.

“What’s really interesting to me is that we have a lot of people who are interested in the top of the ticket, but who are also educated about the importance of the negative vote,” the recent chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party, Anderson Clayton. he told MSNBC’s Chris Hayes.

Should Harris win North Carolina and its 16 electoral votes, she will likely already be on her way to a national victory given the state’s slight Republican tilt in presidential races. However, while he clearly would like to do so, Harris does not need to win the state to win the election.

But North Carolina is critical for Trump. He has been an anchor of southern support in his last two presidential runs. And the state’s penchant for close elections is a reflection of how much Robinson’s troubles could ultimately decide Trump’s political fate.

During a rally Saturday in Wilmington, Trump appeared to acknowledge that reality. Robinson was not present at the event. And the former president did not mention the lieutenant governor’s name.