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USD/JPY rises above 144.00 after US mixed flash PMI

  • USD/JPY rises above 144.00 after the release of mixed preliminary US S&P Global PMI data for September.
  • The US services PMI came in better than forecast at 55.4.
  • Investors await BoJ Ueda’s speech on Tuesday.

USD/JPY is moving higher above 144.00 in the North American session on Monday following the release of mixed preliminary S&P United States (US) PMI (Global Purchasing Managers) data for September.

The report showed that the composite PMI expanded at a slower pace to 54.4 from 54.6 in August. A sharp contraction in manufacturing activity was offset by better-than-expected activity in the services sector. Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 47.0, which was expected to have improved to 48.5 from the previous release of 47.9. The services PMI, a measure of activity in the services sector, which accounts for two-thirds of the US economy, landed higher at 55.4 than estimates of 55.2, but remained lower than the previous reading of 55.7.

The US Composite PMI led to some recovery in the US Dollar (USD) as the US Dollar Index (DXY) gathered strength to break decisively above 101.00. Going forward, the US dollar will be guided by market expectations of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook.

The asset is struggling for direction as investors await a speech by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday, where he is expected to provide fresh guidance on the interest rate outlook.

Last week, Kazuo Ueda’s comments in the press conference after the monetary policy decision indicated that the BoJ is in no rush to raise interest rates further. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said: “Our decision on monetary policy will depend on economic, price and financial developments at the time. Real interest rates in Japan remain extremely low. If our economic and price forecasts are realized, we will raise interest rates and adjust the degree of monetary support accordingly,” at the press conference.

Frequently Asked Questions about the Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the most traded currencies in the world. Its value is largely determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by Bank of Japan policy, the difference between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the yen. The BoJ has intervened directly in currency markets on occasion, generally to depress the yen, although it refrains from doing so because of the political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ’s current ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the yen to depreciate against its major peers. This process has been exacerbated more recently by a widening policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks, which have opted to raise interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.

The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to increased policy divergence with other central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds, which favors the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

The Japanese yen is often seen as a safe investment. This means that during periods of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money into the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. The troubled times are likely to strengthen the value of the yen against other currencies considered riskier to invest in.

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