Vinod Khosla said universal basic income may be necessary because of AI

That means everyone from doctors to sales people to people working on farms and assembly lines could see AI take over a lot of their work — and mostly do it better, a he wrote.

“As AI reduces the need for human labor, UBI could become crucial, with governments playing a key role in regulating the impact of AI and ensuring equitable distribution of wealth,” Khosla said.

Supporters of universal basic income, including Silicon Valley celebrities like Elon Musk and OpenAI’s Sam Altman, have said it could help reduce disparities that threaten to widen as AI absorbs aspects of jobs — or replaces them with all certain roles.

AI is not like other technological advances

Khosla, who has described himself as an “unapologetic capitalist and tech optimist,” argues that large-scale payments to supplement revenue will likely be necessary, at least for a while, because AI is not like many recent technological advances.

The microprocessor, the internet and the mobile phone emerged as tools that humans could use, he said, but “AI, by contrast, amplifies and multiplies the human brain just as the advent of steam engines and engines amplified muscle power.” .

He expects AI to reduce costs far beyond what the microprocessor could. In addition to all the expertise being widely available and almost free, Khosla expects AI to introduce everything from bipedal robots to cheaper materials — including metals and drugs by supercharging science and materials discovery.

He understands the concerns about the idea of ​​handing out cash to people who are pushed out of their jobs by AI. Khosla wrote that it might seem “impractical” due to economic constraints. And, he added, ignoring these issues has led to “disasters” in places like Argentina and Venezuela.

However, Khosla expects the scale of AI gains to gradually reduce the economic constraints that animate some critics of UBI.

One of these is that UBI programs could remove an incentive to work. As of 2019, more than 100 U.S. municipalities have tried some version of cash distribution. So-called guaranteed basic income programs are targeted at lower-income households as a means of combating poverty.

A recent study found that rolling out a UBI worldwide would increase global GDP by 130%. Last week, Pope Francis reiterated his support for UBI because, he said, it could help uplift people who have not seen the benefits of globalization.

Discussion is needed

Khosla also said it’s important to be careful when making recommendations for a particular policy fix or premature moves on a national scale that would be drastic or irreversible.

“Debate and discussion are certainly needed,” he said.

Still, interventions are needed to help those hurt by widening income disparities, Khosla said. This will mean keeping a close eye on these changes and making “small policy changes” this decade.

He noted that even if AI continues to make rapid gains in its abilities, impact and adoption may be slower, “like the flat end of an exponential curve.”

A billion robots

Khosla predicted that robots will produce enough value to “support the people they replace.” He said that in 25 years there could be a billion two-legged robots handling various tasks.

This could eliminate the need for people to handle sometimes arduous tasks, such as working on an assembly line or a farm, and such a market could become bigger than the auto industry, Khosla said.

“Few prepare for how this will radically change GDP, productivity and human happiness, and free people from the slavery of these tasks we call jobs,” he wrote.